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+--- Thread: Superbowl prop betting (/showthread.php?tid=10037)
- Galt - 02-04-2005
I've bet on sports exactly once in my life (and won betting the under on the Steelers/Dallas SuperBowl).
Now, I want to waste some money parlaying a few prop bets. What are the sites I should go? Which ones are the easiest to navigate, and won't steal all my money? My brother came back with a list of prop lines that someone gave him at work. I have no idea where they are from
And if you have any good prop bets you think are good, lay them on me.
A few that caught my eye
OVER: Westbrook Rush attempts: 12 1/2
OVER: Givins Receptions: 4
UNDER: Owens receiving yards: 42 1/2
OVER: Receiving Yards vs. Pinkston + 17 1/2
OVER: Greg Lewis first reception: 8 1/2
OVER: Minutes of longest scoring drive 6 1/2
FIELD: First player to score a TD (Not McNabb, Owens, G Lewis, C Lewis, Westbrook, or T Brown) - pays off 8:1
Another thing. I went to two quick sites that I've heard: VIP Sports and Bet-on Sports, and there looks to be an arbitrage opportunity
VIPSports has an O/U of Rushing Yards by Westbrook of 70 1/2 yards. BetonSports has an O/U of 64 1/2. Both have what looks like an "even" payout on the over, while VIP is (-130) on the under and Beton is (-140) on the under. I have no idea what either of this means. Does the -130 mean that I'd have to put $130 down to win $100? I thought O/U meant that you bet $100. Pick the over or under. If you win you get a hundred no matter what your side.
Surely, I'm missing something, because it looks like I can put $100 on the over on BetonSports (64 1/2) and $100 on the under at VIPSports (70 1/2) and ensure that I'm going to win one of them. If Westbrook happens to rush between 65 and 70, I win both. Now, that's not very likely, but can I assume there are other discrepencies between passing yards, TDs, competions, attempts for Brady and McNabb, yards receiving, rushing, receptions for everyone else? If I just bet a bunch on both sides, took the free yards that I was given, I'd be assured of winning
- diceisgod - 02-05-2005
degenerate
- Keyser Soze - 02-05-2005
Someone has to resolve this before sunday, it can't possibly be right, otherwise we'd be printing money!!!
- The Sleeper - 02-05-2005
wouldn't you break even on the over though. since you bet $100 on the under and the over has an even payout?
- The Sleeper - 02-05-2005
but yes, (-140) means bet 140 win 100. (+140) means bet 100 win 140
- The Sleeper - 02-05-2005
without going into a mathametical breakdown, the only way i see you coming ahead with this is if westbrook goes between 65 and 70. prop bets are set up so that the - always exceeds the +, so you can't win by betting on both sides
- Galt - 02-05-2005
Oh, so it does mean that I'd have to bet $130 to win $100 on the under? That's crap.
So that question is answered, what about the other ones. Where should I bet? What site is good? What prop bets would be recommended?
- The Sleeper - 02-05-2005
What are you keyser? make up your own mind
- The Sleeper - 02-05-2005
if i had a ton of money, i'd do this one
Will there be a Safety
02/06/05 710 Yes +600 OFF OFF
18:25 ET No -900 OFF OFF
and bet like $10,000 on no. that's a free 1100 bucks.
- Galt - 02-07-2005
Quote:WIN -- OVER: Westbrook Rush attempts: 12 1/2
LOSS -- OVER: Givins Receptions: 4
LOSS -- UNDER: Owens receiving yards: 42 1/2
WIN -- OVER: Receiving Yards vs. Pinkston + 17 1/2 (That was supposed to be Branch + 17 1/2 -- which can be proven that I actually put money down on Branch to reach 100 yards)
WIN -- OVER: Greg Lewis first reception: 8 1/2
LOSS -- OVER: Minutes of longest scoring drive 6 1/2
WIN -- FIELD: First player to score a TD (Not McNabb, Owens, G Lewis, C Lewis, Westbrook, or T Brown) - pays off 8:1
4-3 including an 8:1 bet. Now, I didn't make any of these bets, but these were my calls.
- The Sleeper - 02-07-2005
you should've did what i said and you'd have had a cool 1100 bucks
- Galt - 02-07-2005
I should have bet that Givins was going to score a TD. It was such a no-brainer.
- fbd - 02-07-2005
the safety looked pretty close at the end of the game. i could have easily seen mcnabb going down in the end zone while trying to get a hail mary
- Keyser Soze - 02-07-2005
i was thinking of sleeper in the final 50 seconds