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+--- Thread: Catching aaron (/showthread.php?tid=3133)
- GonzoStyle - 08-12-2002
Who do you think has the best chance of breaking the 755 mark set by aaron for career home runs?
Barry is the closest at 600 now but he's 37, Aaron was 42 I believe when he hit 755, or was it 715? Either way does barry have the longevity? He can probably average 40 homers a year for another 4 years but who knows? In 1998 and 1999 McGwire also looked unstoppable but then came along 2001 and that was all.
Sosa is only 33 and is on a streak like no one has ever been on before, he's a machine. Plus he has the biggest shot at staying in the game for the longest amount of time cause he loves the game more than any player I know of. He's averaging 60 homers a year over the last few years. 7 years averaging 45 homers a year and he'll smash the record.
A Rod is the heir apparent to be the best in the game, he's the youngest of the 4. He can easily average 35 - 40 homers a year.
Griffey was the heir apparent several years ago to be the man to break aarons and maris's records one day. He was th fastest to 300 and 400 home runs. He's still young at 33 years old and isn't too far off sammy on the home run list. But the last 2 years have been horrible for junior. he probably won't hit 10 homers this year. He shoulda been past 500 by now. Everyone has a few off years and bounces back only time will tell.
My choice for 755 at this point would be Sammy.
- criticslovesnatch - 08-12-2002
Arod is the one with the best shot to go above and beyond 755, i'd say he could have 800 or more if he doesn't get injured.
Sosa will break 700, and he might even break 755, but i think when this generation of players retires, Arod will be far beyond Sosa.
- Arpikarhu - 08-13-2002
depends who can dodge being tested for steroids the longest
- Galt - 08-13-2002
Shea Hillenbrand
- Arpikarhu - 08-13-2002
once testing happens i think shawn green will be the only major leaguer to ever hit a home run again.
- diceisgod - 08-14-2002
I think Bonds will break it only to have it broken again by Sosa and Arod shortly thereafter. Just watch out for Pat "The Bat" Burrell in about ten years or so.
- GonzoStyle - 08-14-2002
No one has any faith in junior griffey anymore... that's sad.
- Gooch - 08-14-2002
can never account for injuries, but i think arod is a good bet. Adam Dunn, Burrell, among others are the new blood that can make a run perhaps. But, who knows.
- OAS - 08-15-2002
I said several years ago Griffey would be the one to break it so I will stick with him. I can see some pitcher nailing Bonds in the near future breaking his arm and ending his chase. Bonds is hated by most players in the game. But as you said, time will tell.
- Galt - 08-15-2002
I don't think Griffey has a chance. He's got no motivation and I can't see him playing into his late 30s/early 40s like he'd need to.
He's got leg problems, and looks to me to be on a Canseco-esque career slide
- GonzoStyle - 08-15-2002
It's a fuckin shame truth be told, shows how fast someone can slip from greatness. just a few years ago, Griffey was poised to be one of the greatest ever, now look. He's still my most favorite player, no one has a sweeter swing to look at than his.
- Arpikarhu - 08-16-2002
griffey has no heart
- Tequila - 08-16-2002
Quote:No one has any faith in junior griffey anymore... that's sad.If he can stay healty and play all 162 games a year and avg. 50 a year he might get there but other then that I don't see him getting over 650 total.
Also Aaron played 23 seasons and NEVER hit more than 45 in a season.
Aarons complete stats
- GonzoStyle - 08-16-2002
Hammerin Hank had the longevity, he wouldn't leave the game without the record. He didn't care if it took him several more years than Ruth or if it took Him over 2,000 more at bats than Ruth to break 714, he wanted the record itself. That's why I don't see anyone but Sammy sticking around for it. Rickey Henderson would, but not for the same reason, he's just a fuckin "me, me, me" player.
Sammy is on a tear again, he's gone from 33 to 41 homers in a blink of an eye. This may be 5 straight years with atleast 50 homers. He's at 491 homers now, he'll be in the 500 club most definetly by the end of the year and he'll be only 34. Aaron played till he was 43 or 42 I believe. So sammy has 3 years on bonds, even more. He should be in the 600 club by mid 36 years of age. I can see him sticking around till he's 40 or so. But just like McGwire and Griffey, the power can go at anytime.
Edited By GonzoStyle on Aug. 16 2002 at 5:48
- Tequila - 08-16-2002
Quote:That's why I don't see anyone but Sammy sticking around for it
I don't think Sammy can do it only for the reason is that he only has about 3 maybe 4 years left before he had to call it quits. and he is not even at 500 yet. He might get lucky and be traded to an AL team and wind up being a DH that is the only chance he has.
- GonzoStyle - 08-16-2002
Like I said he's got 500 by the end of the year, at the least. He's gonna be 34 at the end of the year.
He's averaging almost 60 homers a year over the last 5 years and he is getting better and better and consistent. He's not striking out as much but the reason he does strike out is cause he wants a jack at every at bat. If he hits 200 homers over the next 4 or 5 years and he's close to 700 he will not leave, no way.
- criticslovesnatch - 08-16-2002
Aaron has the lowest HR/at bat ratio of anyone in the 500 club. He just stuck around for the longest, thats how he got the record. Sosa's HR/AB blows Aaron's out of the water. if he plays till 39 or 40, which i think he will if he can sniff the record, he'll get to 750 or so.
- GonzoStyle - 08-16-2002
The problem with todays players is no one starts playing at a young age like they did back in the day. No one starts their career at 18,19,& 20. That's why playing till you are 40 is tough, when you start your career at 26.
- GonzoStyle - 08-17-2002
I was gonna post that sammy hit another one yesterday and the day before, then he went and hit another one today. That's 10 homers since august 8th, 43 on the year. Too bad the season ends in 2 weeks, he might have hit 60 yet again.