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+--- Thread: Running Backs vs. Wide Receivers - Who is more valuable? (/showthread.php?tid=7120)
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- Keyser Soze - 08-11-2003
I was always in the mindset that i need to draft as many RBs early in my drafts as possible. After taking a harder look at the numbers I was surprised to find a much greater depth talent-wise at RB than at WR. Check this out...
2002 Fantasy Points (using TDs, Yds, Recpts, Rush Yards for stats)
RBs
------
Holmes 441
LT 384
Ricky 369
Garner 346
Tiki 332
Shaun 329
Portis 320
Deuce 300
Henry 315
Faulk 287
Green 273
WR
---
Harrison 380
Hines 332
Terrell 318
Moss 290
Moulds 286
Price 270
Thats a much shorter list. Seems to me that you might want to snatch up those WRs earlier before the quality goes way down.
Any thoughts?
- Mad - 08-11-2003
Pick a black one.
- diceisgod - 08-11-2003
Racism is funny....in moderation
- Galt - 08-11-2003
If you don't grab two RB in the first two rounds, you'll have to pick someone who gets you no points. The difference between the top 15 RB and the rest of the RB is massive, and after the top 25, they pretty much don't get you any points. The top RBs might get you 2000 total yards and 15+ TDs. If you don't get two solid guys, you'll be forced to start a guy who might get you a few hundred yards and a handful of TDs.
The top WRs might give you 1500 yards and 12 TDs. If you miss out on the top guys, you can still easily grab a WR who will get you 800 yards and a handful of TDs even after the draft is completed.
Because of this (and another reason why you should pick RBs first) everyone else will be picking RBs before WR and QB so you can wait for them.
Especially this year when after Vick, McNabb, and Culpepper there are 10 QBs who could put up the same amount of points, you can wait REAL late to get a QB.
The only draft I did so far, I waited until the 8th round to draft a QB (in a 14 team league) and still got McNair and Ramsey, and waited for rounds 3 and 4 to get my WR and still got Burress and Toomer.
- HedCold - 08-11-2003
running backs put up their stats more consistently, so in a head to head league it helps week in and week out
- Sir O - 08-11-2003
Yeah, what Galt said.
Drafting a guy like Harrison or Owens early does give you an edge in the WR department, but really, waiting til later for a RB will get you a guy who will score very little for you, whereas waiting til the middle rounds for a WR will still get you some production. Would you rather have, say, LT and Donte Stallworth, or Harrison and Stacey Mack?
Every team starts only one halfback, while they start two WR's. It's like comparing the stats of the top catcher in baseball to a OF with similar stats. Position scarcity plays a role.
- Keyser Soze - 08-11-2003
I disagree. Look at the stats I posted. There are more RBs putting up big points than WRs. The falloff at WR is much more dramatic. If anything, the fact that people are so wrapped up in thinking you need to get your RBs early is forcing you to pick one, not the fact that there really are few good running backs, quite the contrary, if you look at the numbers there are more good RBs than there are good WR.
Lets look at the top overall players by fantasy points using the standard scoring system:
Re2P - Receiving Two-point Conversion 1
ReTD - Receiving TD 6
ReYd - Receiving Yards 0+ ReYds = .5 points for every 5 ReYds
Recpt - Reception 5+ Recpts = 1 point for every 1 Recpt
Plus a 1 point bonus @ 10+ Recpt
Ru2P - Rushing Two-point Conversion 1
RuTD - Rushing TD 6
RuYd - Rushing Yards 0+ RuYds = .5 points for every 5 RuYds
Plus a 2 point bonus @ 100+ RuYd
Going by 2002 stats....
------
RB Holmes 441
RB LT 384
WR Harrison 380
RB Ricky 369
RB Garner 346
RB Tiki 332
WR Hines 332
RB Shaun 329
RB Portis 320
WR Terrell 318
RB Henry 315
RB Deuce 300
WR Moss 290
RB Faulk 287
WR Moulds 286
RB Green 273
WR Price 270
How actual average drafts are going... (according to ESPN's Fantasy Leagues)
1. RB Ricky
2. RB LT
3. RB Priest
4. RB Portis
5. RB Faulk
6. RB Deuce
7. RB Shaun
8. QB Vick
9. WR Harrison
10. RB Ahman
11. WR Owens
12. RB Henry
13. RB Edgerrin
14. QB McNabb
15. WR Moss
16. RB Taylor
17. Dillon RB
18. Culpepper QB
19. Barber RB
20. Lewis RB
21. Moulds WR
22. Garner RB
23. Shockey TE
24. Manning QB
25. Burress WR
26. Davis RB
27. Boston WR
28. Willie Green RB
29. George RB
30. Tony G TE
People are enamored with RBs which causes the need to grab one, even though the wealth of talent and points are there and not at WR. I think the guy who snaps up the best WR early is going to be in a good position if he can do so and still get a top RB in the early second round, which is entirely possible considering how many good ones there really are.
I think the tough question is around the 8th pick. Do you take Ahman, Harrison or Vick? I think its Harrison, and then take Henry or Dillon on the 2nd pick.
Edited By Keyser Soze on 1060644862
- The Sleeper - 08-11-2003
I took Vick with the 8th pick in our league, and got Edgerrin James with the 2nd, and was able to nab a constently good WR in Moulds with the 4th pick. Since people are so enamored with taking RBs early, it is best for you to take one early, since by the 3rd round, there won't be many around. Like I told you before, if you can get owens or harrison or both in the 1st 2 rounds, that is a solid pick, otherwise i would take a RB.
- Galt - 08-11-2003
if you take Owens and Harrison in the first two rounds, you'll probably get stuck with guys like Antowain Smith and Anthony Thomas after that.
I'd much rather have top backs like Edge and Henry at backs and then WR like Boston and Burress
- Velociti - 08-11-2003
yahoo fantasy is screwed up because they award 6 points for a passing td yet you would only get a fraction of that for rushing yardage. RBs are less valuable.... I saw a rant on this the other day explaining it more precisely but I can't recall the exact wording.
*edit*
I found this on another forum:
Here's the main problem with Yahoo:
They have no clue about scoring. I've been playing fantasy sports HARDCORE since 1990. I've made about $11,000 from CDM, and probably spend $5,000-6,000 playing there. I've played private leagues, high stakes, free, keeper, you name it, every possible rule combination for all 4 major sports, and Yahoo hasn't a clue.
Yahoo has bad rules and teaches them to newbies and perpetuates bad rules in private leagues. In football, they give you 6 points for a passing TD. Because of that, QBs you draft in the 6th round have more points than an RB you take in the 1st round. And they do nothing to reward scoring.
Yahoo gives you 6 points for a passing TD and 1 point for 50 yards passing. Yardage should be worth something. It should be 3 points for a pass TD and 1 point for 25 yards passing, or 4 points for a pass TD and 1 point for 30 yards passing. RB and WR should get 1 point for 10 yards rushing, not 1 point for 20. You can have an RB with a masterful game of 99 yards on 24 carries with no TD and he gets 4 points, or you can have Stacey Mack or Moe Williams have 1 carry for 1 yard and 1 TD and he gets 6 points.
That's absolutely asinine. And I've said that to them for going on 7 years now. They're completely clueless.
In NBA, they give you TO and PF. That's like giving earned runs in baseball. It should be ERA...EARNED RUN AVERAGE, right? Well, it should be TO/MP, like WH/IP. WHIP=Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched. TO/MP is Turnovers/MINUTES PLAYED. It's so dumb that people with dead teams win TO because they don't have as many people going. Same with PF. PF/MP.
But the dumbest of all, and again, coming from someone who's played Fantasy NHL for 13 years is PIM. In Yahoo, PIM is a good thing. It's like TO or PF in basketball being good. Or Errors or Earned Runs in baseball. Or fumbles in football. WTF are they thinking?
Edited By Velociti on 1060646350
- HedCold - 08-12-2003
they probably set it up that way so the only way you can change the scoring is by paying for a league instead of using their free one
- Keyser Soze - 08-12-2003
I see your point about taking back to back WR for first two picks. I'm not insisting you do that, or even take a WR as your first pick if you're drafting higher than 5th. I think Harrison or Owens are solid picks 6th and below, and for your second pick, take the best available RB (most likely Garner, Green, Tiki, Edge or Trung at that point) or possibly Vick.
- Sir O - 08-12-2003
I don't know...I'm looking at Yahoo Public scoring here.
WR's
Harrison 145
Owens 145
Ward 136
Moulds 117
Price 108
Toomer 107
Moss 106
Horn 105
Burress 100
Big dropoff after the top 3, but most of the rest were usually taken between rounds 3-6. Looking at RB's...
Holmes 243
Williams 191
Tomlinson 182
Portis 175
Alexander 170
McAllister 165
Garner 149
That's 7 RB's scoring more than the top WR. The next three scored 143, 140, 140, before a significant dropoff. And when you get past the top 20, you get numbers like 88, 80, 71. Last year, Priest Holmes was generally taken in the mid-to-late first round, and scored almost 100 points more than the best WR's.
Also, compare say the best to the 20th best at each position.
RB: Priest Holmes 243, Warrick Dunn 99
Difference: 144, 9 points per game
WR: Marvin Harrison 145, Quincy Morgan 82
Difference: 63, about 4 points per game
A lot depends on the scoring, but at the same time, it's pretty obvious that if you don't get two solid RB's early, you'll be very weak at that position. Taking the best WR early does give you an advantage at that position, but does it compensate for the weakness at RB? I don't think it does...
So let's say you take Harrison in the first, then the 12th best back in the second, then the 20th best back in the third.
That's 145+117+99=361 points
Take the 8th best back in the first, 12th best back in the second, and say the 6th best WR in the third, you get:
143+117+107=367
Looks like a wash here actually...interesting.
- Keyser Soze - 08-12-2003
Sir O, I like your formula.
I looked at it this way, with a 12 team draft.
2 scenarios...
I take Harrison 8th, Dillon (or Jamal or Fred Taylor) 17th, Willie Green (or Trung) 31st
WR + RB + RB
373 + 240 + 250 = 863
or
I take Ahman 8th, Tiki (or Garner or Edge) 17th, then Horn (or Ward, Holt, Moulds or Booker) 31st
RB + RB + WR
290 + 270 + 255 = 815
I think i've got the edge by taking Harrison first by quite a few pts.
Edited By Keyser Soze on 1060648331
- HedCold - 08-12-2003
yea that formula was real heavy duty stuff
- diceisgod - 08-12-2003
Plagerize next time why don't you?
- Galt - 08-12-2003
Keyser's first five picks: McNabb, Taylor, James Stewart, Trung Canidate, Troy Brown
My first five picks: McCallister, Garner, Burress, Toomer, Heap
14 team league.
Who's opinion do you want to rely on?
- Keyser Soze - 08-12-2003
I missed the draft in that league, I did far better in the CDIH draft...
Tomlinson, Barber, Horn, Ward, Stewart
- Velociti - 08-13-2003
yea you did better in the live draft that you missed then some people that were there.
- Keyser Soze - 08-14-2003
<font size=4>In the Trenches: The Faulk strategy</font>
<font size=3>[b]Aug. 14, 2003
Michael Fabiano
Commissioner.COM Fantasy Writer</font>
Fantasy owners are always looking for an edge, that one advantage that will aid them in assembling a championship-caliber team on Draft Day. You can bring updated depth charts, player rankings, cheat sheets for miles and an assortment of good luck charms. But nothing is more vital to the success of a draft than having a solid blueprint.
Welcome to the Faulk Strategy.
Named after St. Louis running back Marshall Faulk, this strategy's basic premise requires owners to select three running backs in the first three rounds. It also requires owners to select a quarterback or wide receiver in Round 4, depending on the flow of the draft, and a quality tight end by the end of Round 7. The Faulk strategy also suggests filling out all skill positions before selecting a kicker or defense, neither of which should be taken until the final two rounds. Because there are so many good kickers in the league, there's no reason to waste an earlier pick on the position. And unless you grab the Buccaneers defense, the difference in many of these units is minimal from a Fantasy perspective.
Marshall Faulk is nearly certain to be a top-five pick in your upcoming draft.(Getty Images)
Faulk was once head and shoulders more valuable than any player in Fantasy Football, and drafting him was almost a guaranteed ticket to the playoffs. My thinking in constructing the early-round guidelines of this strategy was simple: If I wasn't lucky enough to draft Faulk, I was going to do everything possible to guarantee consistent production from my backfield. Selecting three No. 1 running backs not only gave me better depth at the position than most owners, it also gave me a chance to play matchups and counter the owner that selected Faulk. Considering the value of running backs, it also gave me great leverage for making trades during the regular season.
What makes this strategy such a success is that it enables owners to gain depth at the most vital position without sacrificing overall team balance. The number of quality quarterbacks and wide receivers has grown in recent years, and the growing popularity of the Faulk strategy increases the level of solid non-running backs available after Round 4.
I've outlined the major guidelines owners should follow to ensure the highest level of success on Draft Day. In order to gain a better understanding of the players available per round, I've included my own round-by-round selections from the Gridiron Guru League and Krause Experts League drafts.
Faulk Strategy guidelines
Rounds 1-3
The most vital guideline to the Faulk strategy is selecting three running backs in the first three rounds. Not only does the running back position lack great depth, but it is also the skill position where the most injuries are suffered. A total of 10 starting running backs missed at least two games last season, while another six missed one. By using the Faulk strategy, owners ensure themselves three quality players at a position desperately lacking depth. Running backs will go flying off the board in Rounds 1-3, so any failure to follow this strategy early can result in a very undesirable starting backfield for Fantasy owners.
GGL: Marshall Faulk (Round 1), William Green (Round 2), Corey Dillon (Round 3)
KPL: Stephen Davis (Round 1), Tiki Barber (Round 2), Kevan Barlow (Round 3)
Rounds 4-7
Depending on the flow of your draft, selecting a quarterback or wide receiver in Round 4 is advised. It isn't completely out of the question to grab a fourth starting running back here if one should slip through the cracks, especially if you play in a league that requires a "flex" player. Be sure to examine the number of quality quarterbacks and wide receivers each round to determine your next selection. If you feel the depth at a certain position is beginning to decrease, it's a good idea to start thinking about grabbing a player from that position. Selecting a quality tight end and individual defensive player (in IDP leagues) is also advised in these rounds.
GGL: Rod Gardner (Round 4), Jerry Rice (Round 5), Bubba Franks (Round 6), Jeff Garcia (Round 7)
KPL: Jeff Garcia (Round 4), Warrick Dunn (Round 5), Bubba Franks (Round 6), Quincy Morgan (Round 7)
Rounds 8-12
Following Faulk Strategy guidelines, owners should have at least one quarterback, three running backs, two wide receivers and one tight end entering Round 8. It is during this phase of the draft that owners should look to add depth to their rosters, mostly in the form of wide receivers. Owners should also consider taking a chance on another running back during these rounds, especially if one of the tailbacks selected in the early rounds has been prone to injuries. Looking for potential sleepers and a backup quarterback is also advised.
GGL: Kurt Warner (Round 8), Tai Streets (Round 9), Curtis Conway (Round 10), Emmitt Smith (Round 11), Lamar Gordon (Round 12)
KPL: Travis Taylor (Round 8), Chad Pennington (Round 9), Joey Galloway (Round 10), Ed McCaffrey (Round 11), Corey Bradford (Round 12)
Rounds 13-16
Owners should take a chance on a few potential sleepers before grabbing a kicker and defense in the final two rounds.
GGL: Kevin Johnson (Round 13), Dwayne Carswell (Round 14) Falcons defense (Round 15), Jeff Reed (Round 16)
KPL: Steve Smith (Round 13), Jason Elam (Round 14), Cowboys defense (Round 15)