investment advice forum

[Galt]

Short oil futures.

[Gooch]

hey...got a question for you. Think housing market will keep falling? Or bounce back in 9 months as Jim Cramer purports?

[Galt]

Jim Cramer knows more than I do, so I'd go with him.

However, one of the things that's keeping NYC's market afloat right now is the shitty currency that lets foreigners come in and buy property.

I don't think the economy is going to get better, and Obama is going to walk into a shitstorm.

But I really don't know anything about property. I don't own any. I tried to buy one thing in Texas and it didn't work out.

[Mad]

Bottom is very subjective in the current RE mess, some believe we're only a third of the way through the subprime debacle. Which means at least another 750+/- bad paper and more write downs.

As long as the dollar is down and the euro is up, it makes for a good investment for foreigner's.

Foreclosures are way up in certain areas, and will depress the sales price in those areas.

If you know any working RE persons ask them to get you a years worth of sales prices for the area you're looking at.

Just compare the number of bedrooms, baths, school district, and average those out. It should give you an average sales price for that area and a place to start your offer at (offer 15-20% less then the asking price and feel the sellers out.)

[diceisgod]

Goldman & Sach sez the price of oil will double over the next 12 months - according to the fat man I met at jury duty last month. So if shorting it allows one to take advantage of the fat man's relayed prediction then I concur and would follow it if I knew how or cared.

[Galt]

Goldman Sachs says no such thing.

And while everyone's complaining about those horrible oil speculators who are running up oil prices, in fact, hedge funds are going short on oil by a 2:1 margin since January.

[The Jays]

so what does that mean exactly?

[diceisgod]

It means that either the fatty at jury duty was insane or wrong or galt is.

[Galt]

so what does that mean exactly?

It means that while the press is blaming oil speculators for artificially driving oil prices up, it's completely bullshit. Wall Street is largely saying that oil prices are going to go down.

[The Jays]

These articles I read everyday about oil going up, they always mention that people flock to oil because the dollar is weak. What I don't understand is when they justify the price of oil because of tension between Iran and the US , or because Nigeria attacks an oil field. How do these little blips manage to make oil jump dollars a barrel, it seems like they are done on purpose almost to give people an excuse.

[Mad]

Exactly.

[Galt]

Oil is down about 15-20% since I posted this. You're welcome.

[Arpikarhu]

Oil is down about 15-20% since I posted this. You're welcome.

the law of averages presupposes that you would eventually get one right

[Galt]

You mean like when I shorted the market in October?

[Arpikarhu]

You mean like when I shorted the market in October?

sure you did

[Galt]

archives, bitch.


edit: Oh, you got me. It was November! I have been caught as a liar!

<!-- l --><a class="postlink-local" href="http://forums.colddayinhell.net/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12967&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=puts">viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12967&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=puts</a><!-- l -->

[Arpikarhu]

archives, bitch.


edit: Oh, you got me. It was November! I have been caught as a liar!

<!-- l --><a class="postlink-local" href="http://forums.colddayinhell.net/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12967&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=puts">viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12967&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=puts</a><!-- l -->

BUSTED!!!

wow! 2 right guess in 4 months. you are almost as good as a yahoo finance board poster.

[Galt]

I've made two calls on the board in 6 months. Both dead on balls accurate.

Feel free to find where I've been wrong.