12-10-2006, 08:19 AM
i saw this posted on another site, i'm not sure of the website it was originally taken from
Yes, between the Cards defense and offense (pumping up his win totals), this is the classic case of a horrible pitcher looking mediocre to a really stupid team. Marquis is a replacement level pitcher who has somehow managed to get lots of ML innings, similar to Estes and a few others in recent years. Don't let even his ERA+ in 04 and 05 fool you as that is heavily influenced by defense which is not accounted for of course in the ERA+ formula, not to mention the difference between FIP or DIPS ERA and regular ERA (which can be heavily influenced by luck - BABIP). Here are Marquis' NERC for the last 5 years. NERC is a component ERA adjusted for park, opponent, and defense, and then normalized to 4.00 (for that league only). It does not do a DIPS (BABIP) adjustment. The average starter has an NERC of around 4.20 (reliever around 3.90).
2002 5.29
2003 4.11
2004 4.80
2005 4.80
2006 5.07
He is he quintessential definition of a replacement pitcher. In fact, I use around 4.80 as replacement level as the true talent of the worst starters in baseball is around that (.6 runs per 9 innings worse than an average starter). His monetary value is next to nothing and I don't mean that figuratively or hyperbolicly.
So far and off the top of my head, this, Meche, and Carlos Lee are the worst signings of the off-season. This is the worst, by far, of the three. What makes Marquis such a bad pitcher, and which is unlikely to change (true-talent-wise of course), is that his HR rate is terrible, his walk rate is not even average, and his K rate is terrible as well. You can't get any worse than that and still have a job in the major leagues.
Yes, between the Cards defense and offense (pumping up his win totals), this is the classic case of a horrible pitcher looking mediocre to a really stupid team. Marquis is a replacement level pitcher who has somehow managed to get lots of ML innings, similar to Estes and a few others in recent years. Don't let even his ERA+ in 04 and 05 fool you as that is heavily influenced by defense which is not accounted for of course in the ERA+ formula, not to mention the difference between FIP or DIPS ERA and regular ERA (which can be heavily influenced by luck - BABIP). Here are Marquis' NERC for the last 5 years. NERC is a component ERA adjusted for park, opponent, and defense, and then normalized to 4.00 (for that league only). It does not do a DIPS (BABIP) adjustment. The average starter has an NERC of around 4.20 (reliever around 3.90).
2002 5.29
2003 4.11
2004 4.80
2005 4.80
2006 5.07
He is he quintessential definition of a replacement pitcher. In fact, I use around 4.80 as replacement level as the true talent of the worst starters in baseball is around that (.6 runs per 9 innings worse than an average starter). His monetary value is next to nothing and I don't mean that figuratively or hyperbolicly.
So far and off the top of my head, this, Meche, and Carlos Lee are the worst signings of the off-season. This is the worst, by far, of the three. What makes Marquis such a bad pitcher, and which is unlikely to change (true-talent-wise of course), is that his HR rate is terrible, his walk rate is not even average, and his K rate is terrible as well. You can't get any worse than that and still have a job in the major leagues.