09-25-2007, 05:31 PM
What does the existing team I would be inheriting look like?
My week 3 picks:
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ca-9hHgj23HpS9N1savWg&gid=2">http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... avWg&gid=2</a><!-- m -->
Out of my 13 picks, I had 7 good ones – 54%, outperforming last week’s “expert” Brad Evans as I predicted.
As for the “expert” picks from week 3, I looked at NFL.com’s Fantasy Editor, Michael Fabiano:
He made the most picks of anyone so far, offering up 45 “start ‘ems” and 45 “sit ‘ems”. The result: <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ca-9hHgj23HpS9N1savWg&gid=3">http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... avWg&gid=3</a><!-- m -->
Finally, somebody performing better than the expected 40%. Fabiano made 50 good picks out of his 90, 55%. Wow, finally it looks like I found somebody who might actually be an “expert”, right? Wrong. Upon further review and a deeper look into his picks, it becomes clear exactly why he performed with such accuracy.
In week 1, I looked at an expert from CBS Sportsline, who prefaced his picks with the following statement: “We are not in the business of stating the obvious, so you won't be reading here why you need to start Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson or any other top-tier players.”
Fair enough. However, apparently NFL.com’s “experts” don’t buy into that same logic of not stating the obvious. Of Fabiano’s 45 “start ‘ems”, 8 could easily be considered “top-tier, must start” players:
Tom Brady
Brian Westbrook
Clinton Portis
Shayne Graham
Josh Brown
Vikings DEF/ST
Patriots DEF/ST
Broncos DEF/ST
And that’s not including borderlines such as McNabb, Jordan, and Chambers. So if you take away those 8 picks, you’re left with 47/90 = 52%. Still not too shabby. But let’s examine this further: Much like the CBS “expert” from week 1, Fabiano was far more accurate in selecting “sit ems” than “start ems”. Again, all this proves is that it’s easier to say “don't start David Garrard" than it is to say "start Derek Anderson.” Delving further into Fabiano’s “sit ems” we come up with the following “expert” advice:
Don’t start:
David Garrard against the best secondary in the league
JP Losman, Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch and Rian Lindell against the Patriots
Matt Leinart against the Ravens
Julius Jones (not their primary RB) against the Bears
Tatum Bell (not their primary RB) against the Eagles
Deuce McAllister (not their primary RB)
Daniel Graham (4 catches in 2 previous games)
Vishante Shiancoe (2 catches in 2 previous games)
Alex Smith (4 catches in 2 previous games)
Mark Clayton (1 catch in previous 2 games)
Texans defense against the Colts
Bills defense against the 38.0 PPG Patriots
This is no different than stating the obvious by telling people to start Brady or Manning or Tomlinson. It doesn’t take an expert – in fact, it doesn’t take any football knowledge whatsoever – to decide to bench a receiver or tight end that rarely sees the ball. Even a fantasy rookie would know not to start any defense against the Colts or Patriots, much less the Texans and Bills defenses.
So yeah, this “expert” performed with 55% accuracy on 90 picks. In fairness, he did make some good calls. Even though a big chunk of his picks came from stating the obvious, I cannot deny that this has been the best “expert” of the bunch. Nevertheless, I am not impressed. Still, I will calculate these picks into the grand total, which is now 79/165 = 48%.
My week 3 picks:
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ca-9hHgj23HpS9N1savWg&gid=2">http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... avWg&gid=2</a><!-- m -->
Out of my 13 picks, I had 7 good ones – 54%, outperforming last week’s “expert” Brad Evans as I predicted.
As for the “expert” picks from week 3, I looked at NFL.com’s Fantasy Editor, Michael Fabiano:
He made the most picks of anyone so far, offering up 45 “start ‘ems” and 45 “sit ‘ems”. The result: <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ca-9hHgj23HpS9N1savWg&gid=3">http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... avWg&gid=3</a><!-- m -->
Finally, somebody performing better than the expected 40%. Fabiano made 50 good picks out of his 90, 55%. Wow, finally it looks like I found somebody who might actually be an “expert”, right? Wrong. Upon further review and a deeper look into his picks, it becomes clear exactly why he performed with such accuracy.
In week 1, I looked at an expert from CBS Sportsline, who prefaced his picks with the following statement: “We are not in the business of stating the obvious, so you won't be reading here why you need to start Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson or any other top-tier players.”
Fair enough. However, apparently NFL.com’s “experts” don’t buy into that same logic of not stating the obvious. Of Fabiano’s 45 “start ‘ems”, 8 could easily be considered “top-tier, must start” players:
Tom Brady
Brian Westbrook
Clinton Portis
Shayne Graham
Josh Brown
Vikings DEF/ST
Patriots DEF/ST
Broncos DEF/ST
And that’s not including borderlines such as McNabb, Jordan, and Chambers. So if you take away those 8 picks, you’re left with 47/90 = 52%. Still not too shabby. But let’s examine this further: Much like the CBS “expert” from week 1, Fabiano was far more accurate in selecting “sit ems” than “start ems”. Again, all this proves is that it’s easier to say “don't start David Garrard" than it is to say "start Derek Anderson.” Delving further into Fabiano’s “sit ems” we come up with the following “expert” advice:
Don’t start:
David Garrard against the best secondary in the league
JP Losman, Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch and Rian Lindell against the Patriots
Matt Leinart against the Ravens
Julius Jones (not their primary RB) against the Bears
Tatum Bell (not their primary RB) against the Eagles
Deuce McAllister (not their primary RB)
Daniel Graham (4 catches in 2 previous games)
Vishante Shiancoe (2 catches in 2 previous games)
Alex Smith (4 catches in 2 previous games)
Mark Clayton (1 catch in previous 2 games)
Texans defense against the Colts
Bills defense against the 38.0 PPG Patriots
This is no different than stating the obvious by telling people to start Brady or Manning or Tomlinson. It doesn’t take an expert – in fact, it doesn’t take any football knowledge whatsoever – to decide to bench a receiver or tight end that rarely sees the ball. Even a fantasy rookie would know not to start any defense against the Colts or Patriots, much less the Texans and Bills defenses.
So yeah, this “expert” performed with 55% accuracy on 90 picks. In fairness, he did make some good calls. Even though a big chunk of his picks came from stating the obvious, I cannot deny that this has been the best “expert” of the bunch. Nevertheless, I am not impressed. Still, I will calculate these picks into the grand total, which is now 79/165 = 48%.