12-05-2007, 09:49 PM
So now I have 6 weeks of experts start em’s/sit em’s and 6 weeks of my own. I will analyze all of this later. First, I will explore some other things that these self proclaimed experts do. In addition to providing a (largely ineffective) list of who to start and sit for a given week, these fuckers also offer up advice of who to start over who; i.e. why you should start player X over player Y. For this current example, I will be examining CBS’ “Fantasy Faceoffs” segment, in which two “experts” offer up a differing point of view on who to start. Here is the link for their week 13 version: <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://lvz.football.sportsline.com/news/10498361">http://lvz.football.sportsline.com/news/10498361</a><!-- m -->
Now, before I get into this, I first must address how useless these articles are. I’ve read a few of them over the course of the season, and they have offered up very little useful information. The biggest reason for this is that they are just comparing two random, arbitrary players. For example, they first explore who to start between Earnest Graham at New Orleans or Edgerrin James vs. Cleveland. An interesting debate, sure, but who cares? How many people does this actually affect? What percentage of owners actually own both Graham and James? I’m sure there are some that do have both of them that will be faced with this dilemma, but of all these “dilemma” articles I’ve read over the course of the season, not once have they debated between two players that I actually own, or that anybody in my league owns. Debating the merits of choosing between two random, similar players may be a fun way to waste your time, but it doesn’t really prove anything. It doesn’t mean a goddamn thing.
For the purposes of this week’s study, I will ignore Dave Richard’s picks and focus solely on Jamey Eisenberg, whose alleged expertise I’ve already brought into question. I revealed how he makes his selections based on the matchup statistics, now let’s delve a little bit deeper into why he likes certain players over others.
Edgerrin James vs. Cleveland over Earnest Graham at New Orleans
-Wouldn’t sit Graham unless it was a choice between Graham and James
-Cleveland is 28th against the run, have allowed 6 TD’s
-Saints are 10th against the run with 5 TD’s allowed
-It all comes down to the matchup
Fred Taylor at Indianapolis over Maurice Jones-Drew at Indianapolis
-Taylor has been more productive the last 2 weeks vs. San Diego & Buffalo
-2 TD’s the past 3 games vs. Jones-Drew’s 3
Kolby Smith vs. San Diego over Thomas Jones at Miami
-Smith had 2 TD’s in his first start last week; Jones has 0 all season
-Chargers have allowed rushing TD’s in 3 of their past 4 games
Vince Young vs. Houston over Matt Schaub at Tennessee
-Young has averaged 269 yards passing the last 3 weeks
-Texans defense was just gashed by the Browns
-Young loves facing Houston, his hometown
-Passing TD and 2 rushing TD’s last year vs. Houston
-Has something to prove after missing first game in Houston this year
Lee Evans at Washington over Justin Gage vs. Houston
-Washington’s secondary is depleted and emotionally spent
-Will take advantage with a healthy Trent Edwards
Chris Chambers at Kansas City over Javon Walker at Oakland
-Chambers the past 2 weeks: 9 rec, 115 yards, TD
-Walker not 100% healthy and has played in 1 game the last 8 weeks. Wait until he’s healthy to play him.
Vikings DST vs. Detroit over Bears DST vs. NY Giants
-The Bears DST has done nothing without Devin Hester
-Vikings past 2 games: 3 defensive TD, 7 sacks, 5 INT
-Jon Kitna last 3 games vs. Minnesota: 3 TD, 7 INT, 9 sacks against
At the onset he backed up my belief of it all coming down to matchups. That’s why he likes James over Graham - Cleveland’s defense is dreadful. But then the rationale for the rest of his picks don’t follow this same logic. Look no further than the Smith vs. Jones debate. San Diego’s run defense is ranked 21st with 8 TD’s allowed, while Miami’s is 30th with 13 TD’s allowed. Smith had 2 more TD’s last week in his first ever start than Jones has had all year. But in keeping with his “it all comes down to the matchup” mantra, who did Smith play last week? Oakland, who ranks dead last in run defense, giving up a league high 18 TD’s. Who’s given up the next most TD’s? Miami. So he’s essentially contradicting himself. He doesn’t even believe in his own methodology.
In the case of the Jacksonville RB’s, he cites their performances over the previous 2-3 weeks to support his choice. Taylor has had 34 carries for 184 yards and a TD the last 2 weeks, while Jones-Drew had 22 carries for 43 yards and 2 TD’s. So why doesn’t recent performance come into play when considering Graham vs. James? In the last 3 games, James has 57 carries for 190 yards (3.33 per carry) and 1 TD versus Graham’s 72 for 301 (4.18) and 3 TDs. Then there’s Evans and Gage. The last 3 weeks, Evans has gone for 10 receptions for 124 yards and no TD’s while Gage recorded 17 for 254 and 1 TD.
Speaking of the Evans-Gage debate, he cites the state of Washington’s secondary and the team’s overall mental state in light of the Sean Taylor incident. He also likes Vince Young this week because of his connection to the Houston area. These are two personal, motivational aspects of the game that he conveniently decided to look at in lieu of what he looks at best – statistics and matchups. Why? Why would Vince Young be extra motivated to perform well against the Texans just because he grew up in Texas? This is not to say that he will not play harder or better because of this, but why not then look at how these factors play in to other debates? Justin Gage attended Missouri. Maybe he’s going to be let down by their loss on Saturday and not play as energized had they won and were still #1 and had a decent chance at competing for the National Championship. And why is he only focusing in on the Redskins in regards to Taylor. There are plenty of former teammates, college and pro, whose performance could be affected similarly to the Redskins. Edgerrin James is a fellow Miami alum, so he could just as easily be as emotionally spent, if not more, than the Redskins’ secondary.
It all comes down to convenience. He conveniently cites statistical data when it fits his needs. When it doesn’t, he reaches for other factors such as how the teams/players have performed the last 2-3 weeks, what the player has done in the past vs. that team, and extra motivating factors that cannot be quantified by the old reliable statistics page.
In addition to the whole “Houston” effect, he also likes Young over Schaub because of Young’s 269 yard average over the last 3 weeks. Meanwhile, since returning from injury, Schaub has averaged 274 yards the last 2 games. Furthermore, the Titans defense has been torn apart the last 2 weeks. Carson Palmer threw for 283 yards and 3 TD’s last week, Jay Cutler 200 yards and 2 scores the week before, allowing 35 and 34 points respectively. Funny how he conveniently ignores things like this.
The results of these picks are irrelevant, or at least far more irrelevant than the results of the start ‘em-sit ‘em analysis. This is just to see the rationale, the thought process, that goes into being called a fantasy football expert. Still, just for the fuck of it let’s see how he fared in these selections:
James: 24 car, 114 yards
Graham: 22 car, 106 yards, TD, 7 rec, 37 yards
Advantage: Graham. Close, but the TD gives it to Graham.
Taylor: 14 car, 104 yards
Jones-Drew: 11 car, 52 yards, TD, 1 rec, 5 yards
Advantage: Push. Taylor had the yardage, Jones-Drew had the TD.
Smith: 21 car, 83 yards, 2 rec, 1 yard
Jones: 24 car, 75 yards, TD, 1 rec, 25 yards
Advantage: Jones. Close again, but again the TD wins out.
Young: 21-31, 248 yards, 2 TD, INT, 5 car, 44 yards
Schaub: 3-5, 34 yards
Advantage: Young. Put an asterisk next to this one though for the injury.
Evans: 4 rec, 51 yards
Gage: 5 rec, 64 yards, TD
Advantage: Gage
Chambers: 2 rec, 50 yards
Walker: 1 rec, 7 yards
Advantage: Chambers
Vikings: 10 PA, 254 YA, 3 sacks, INT, return TD
Bears: 21 PA, 356 YA, 2 sacks, 2 INT, 2 fumble recoveries
Advantage: Push. The TD would ordinarily clinch it for the Vikings, but not all leagues count return TD’s as points for the D/ST. If it were an INT return, it would be a different story.
So of the seven picks, he got two right and pushed on two others. The two he got right were Young over Schaub and Chambers over Walker. Young was the benefactor of Schaub getting hurt early, otherwise who knows what would have happened. Chambers outperformed Walker, but it’s not as if Chambers exactly lit up the scoreboard either; it’s just that Walker was not involved at all in this his first game back from injury. Out of all the logic he provided above – all 20 reasons – the only thing that came to fruition was saying to wait until a player who has missed two months proves he is fully healthy before inserting him back into lineups. Not exactly the most ground-breaking strategy out there. But apparently the most important prerequisite to be a fantasy football expert, in addition to interpreting a statistics page, is the exercising of common sense. Actually, that's about 90% of what it takes, the remaining 10% being a general working knowledge and interest of all things football.
Now, before I get into this, I first must address how useless these articles are. I’ve read a few of them over the course of the season, and they have offered up very little useful information. The biggest reason for this is that they are just comparing two random, arbitrary players. For example, they first explore who to start between Earnest Graham at New Orleans or Edgerrin James vs. Cleveland. An interesting debate, sure, but who cares? How many people does this actually affect? What percentage of owners actually own both Graham and James? I’m sure there are some that do have both of them that will be faced with this dilemma, but of all these “dilemma” articles I’ve read over the course of the season, not once have they debated between two players that I actually own, or that anybody in my league owns. Debating the merits of choosing between two random, similar players may be a fun way to waste your time, but it doesn’t really prove anything. It doesn’t mean a goddamn thing.
For the purposes of this week’s study, I will ignore Dave Richard’s picks and focus solely on Jamey Eisenberg, whose alleged expertise I’ve already brought into question. I revealed how he makes his selections based on the matchup statistics, now let’s delve a little bit deeper into why he likes certain players over others.
Edgerrin James vs. Cleveland over Earnest Graham at New Orleans
-Wouldn’t sit Graham unless it was a choice between Graham and James
-Cleveland is 28th against the run, have allowed 6 TD’s
-Saints are 10th against the run with 5 TD’s allowed
-It all comes down to the matchup
Fred Taylor at Indianapolis over Maurice Jones-Drew at Indianapolis
-Taylor has been more productive the last 2 weeks vs. San Diego & Buffalo
-2 TD’s the past 3 games vs. Jones-Drew’s 3
Kolby Smith vs. San Diego over Thomas Jones at Miami
-Smith had 2 TD’s in his first start last week; Jones has 0 all season
-Chargers have allowed rushing TD’s in 3 of their past 4 games
Vince Young vs. Houston over Matt Schaub at Tennessee
-Young has averaged 269 yards passing the last 3 weeks
-Texans defense was just gashed by the Browns
-Young loves facing Houston, his hometown
-Passing TD and 2 rushing TD’s last year vs. Houston
-Has something to prove after missing first game in Houston this year
Lee Evans at Washington over Justin Gage vs. Houston
-Washington’s secondary is depleted and emotionally spent
-Will take advantage with a healthy Trent Edwards
Chris Chambers at Kansas City over Javon Walker at Oakland
-Chambers the past 2 weeks: 9 rec, 115 yards, TD
-Walker not 100% healthy and has played in 1 game the last 8 weeks. Wait until he’s healthy to play him.
Vikings DST vs. Detroit over Bears DST vs. NY Giants
-The Bears DST has done nothing without Devin Hester
-Vikings past 2 games: 3 defensive TD, 7 sacks, 5 INT
-Jon Kitna last 3 games vs. Minnesota: 3 TD, 7 INT, 9 sacks against
At the onset he backed up my belief of it all coming down to matchups. That’s why he likes James over Graham - Cleveland’s defense is dreadful. But then the rationale for the rest of his picks don’t follow this same logic. Look no further than the Smith vs. Jones debate. San Diego’s run defense is ranked 21st with 8 TD’s allowed, while Miami’s is 30th with 13 TD’s allowed. Smith had 2 more TD’s last week in his first ever start than Jones has had all year. But in keeping with his “it all comes down to the matchup” mantra, who did Smith play last week? Oakland, who ranks dead last in run defense, giving up a league high 18 TD’s. Who’s given up the next most TD’s? Miami. So he’s essentially contradicting himself. He doesn’t even believe in his own methodology.
In the case of the Jacksonville RB’s, he cites their performances over the previous 2-3 weeks to support his choice. Taylor has had 34 carries for 184 yards and a TD the last 2 weeks, while Jones-Drew had 22 carries for 43 yards and 2 TD’s. So why doesn’t recent performance come into play when considering Graham vs. James? In the last 3 games, James has 57 carries for 190 yards (3.33 per carry) and 1 TD versus Graham’s 72 for 301 (4.18) and 3 TDs. Then there’s Evans and Gage. The last 3 weeks, Evans has gone for 10 receptions for 124 yards and no TD’s while Gage recorded 17 for 254 and 1 TD.
Speaking of the Evans-Gage debate, he cites the state of Washington’s secondary and the team’s overall mental state in light of the Sean Taylor incident. He also likes Vince Young this week because of his connection to the Houston area. These are two personal, motivational aspects of the game that he conveniently decided to look at in lieu of what he looks at best – statistics and matchups. Why? Why would Vince Young be extra motivated to perform well against the Texans just because he grew up in Texas? This is not to say that he will not play harder or better because of this, but why not then look at how these factors play in to other debates? Justin Gage attended Missouri. Maybe he’s going to be let down by their loss on Saturday and not play as energized had they won and were still #1 and had a decent chance at competing for the National Championship. And why is he only focusing in on the Redskins in regards to Taylor. There are plenty of former teammates, college and pro, whose performance could be affected similarly to the Redskins. Edgerrin James is a fellow Miami alum, so he could just as easily be as emotionally spent, if not more, than the Redskins’ secondary.
It all comes down to convenience. He conveniently cites statistical data when it fits his needs. When it doesn’t, he reaches for other factors such as how the teams/players have performed the last 2-3 weeks, what the player has done in the past vs. that team, and extra motivating factors that cannot be quantified by the old reliable statistics page.
In addition to the whole “Houston” effect, he also likes Young over Schaub because of Young’s 269 yard average over the last 3 weeks. Meanwhile, since returning from injury, Schaub has averaged 274 yards the last 2 games. Furthermore, the Titans defense has been torn apart the last 2 weeks. Carson Palmer threw for 283 yards and 3 TD’s last week, Jay Cutler 200 yards and 2 scores the week before, allowing 35 and 34 points respectively. Funny how he conveniently ignores things like this.
The results of these picks are irrelevant, or at least far more irrelevant than the results of the start ‘em-sit ‘em analysis. This is just to see the rationale, the thought process, that goes into being called a fantasy football expert. Still, just for the fuck of it let’s see how he fared in these selections:
James: 24 car, 114 yards
Graham: 22 car, 106 yards, TD, 7 rec, 37 yards
Advantage: Graham. Close, but the TD gives it to Graham.
Taylor: 14 car, 104 yards
Jones-Drew: 11 car, 52 yards, TD, 1 rec, 5 yards
Advantage: Push. Taylor had the yardage, Jones-Drew had the TD.
Smith: 21 car, 83 yards, 2 rec, 1 yard
Jones: 24 car, 75 yards, TD, 1 rec, 25 yards
Advantage: Jones. Close again, but again the TD wins out.
Young: 21-31, 248 yards, 2 TD, INT, 5 car, 44 yards
Schaub: 3-5, 34 yards
Advantage: Young. Put an asterisk next to this one though for the injury.
Evans: 4 rec, 51 yards
Gage: 5 rec, 64 yards, TD
Advantage: Gage
Chambers: 2 rec, 50 yards
Walker: 1 rec, 7 yards
Advantage: Chambers
Vikings: 10 PA, 254 YA, 3 sacks, INT, return TD
Bears: 21 PA, 356 YA, 2 sacks, 2 INT, 2 fumble recoveries
Advantage: Push. The TD would ordinarily clinch it for the Vikings, but not all leagues count return TD’s as points for the D/ST. If it were an INT return, it would be a different story.
So of the seven picks, he got two right and pushed on two others. The two he got right were Young over Schaub and Chambers over Walker. Young was the benefactor of Schaub getting hurt early, otherwise who knows what would have happened. Chambers outperformed Walker, but it’s not as if Chambers exactly lit up the scoreboard either; it’s just that Walker was not involved at all in this his first game back from injury. Out of all the logic he provided above – all 20 reasons – the only thing that came to fruition was saying to wait until a player who has missed two months proves he is fully healthy before inserting him back into lineups. Not exactly the most ground-breaking strategy out there. But apparently the most important prerequisite to be a fantasy football expert, in addition to interpreting a statistics page, is the exercising of common sense. Actually, that's about 90% of what it takes, the remaining 10% being a general working knowledge and interest of all things football.