12-12-2007, 09:35 AM
All this statistical analysis and number crunching is all well and good and will be expanded on later. But now it’s time to provide the undeniable evidence necessary that there is no skill, no expertise, involved in being a successful fantasy football player. I avoided as best I could revealing too much about my fantasy team this year. I didn’t want to jinx anything by talking shit about how good my team was. But I no longer have to worry about that, so here’s how my fantasy season went.
This was my first year in this CBS league. It’s a 12-team auction keeper league, $100 salary cap. I never participated in an auction league or a keeper league, so was not sure what to expect. I had no real strategy going into the draft other than to drink as much as possible.
This is a very high scoring league, with bonuses awarded for 100-yard rushing/receiving games, 300-yard passing games, 40-50 yard plays, 40-50 yard FG’s, etc. Receivers get 5 yards/point; running backs 10 yards/point, QB’s 25/point. The roster is very simple, with 1 starting QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST. The bench must mirror the starting lineup; not allowing a bench of 3 RB’s or 4 QB’s or something. With that said, here is the team I drafted:
QB) Carson Palmer, Cin $35
RB) Ronnie Brown, Mia $12
RB) Adrian Peterson, Min $5
WR) Larry Fitzgerald, Ari $20
WR) Calvin Johnson, Det $4
TE) Jeremy Shockey, NYG $12
K) Shayne Graham, Cin $1
D/ST) Jaguars $1
QB) Tarvaris Jackson, Min $1
RB) Brandon Jackson, GB $1
RB) Reuben Droughns, NYG $1
WR) Matt Jones, Jac $3
WR) Robert Meachem, NO $1
TE) David Martin, Mia $1
K) John Kasay, Car $1
D/ST) Colts $1
Each transaction costs $2 each, so to drop a player for another player costs $4, the total of which goes into the winner-take-all pot. I ended up making 10 transactions:
9/12/07 Drop Robert Meachem, add Brandon Marshall, Den
9/19/07 Drop Matt Jones, add Derrick Mason, Bal
10/3/07 Drop Reuben Droughns, add Earnest Graham, TB
10/3/07 Drop Tarvaris Jackson, add Jason Campbell, Was
10/24/07 Drop Ronnie Brown, add Jesse Chatman, Mia
10/24/07 Drop Brandon Jackson, add Kenton Keith, Ind
10/31/07 Drop David Martin, add Leonard Pope, Ari
11/7/07 Drop Calvin Johnson, add Chris Henry, Cin
11/21/07 Drop Kenton Keith, add Maurice Morris, Sea
11/21/07 Drop Derrick Mason, add D.J. Hackett, Sea
I was in first place all year since the end of week 5, and also led the league in total points for the season. I finished the regular season at 11-2. I lost in week 2 (the week Palmer threw 6 TDs) by 0.2 points and got blown out in week 8 when I scored a season low 75.5 points; the only regular season week I scored under 100 points. I essentially dominated the entire season, biding my time until the playoffs. But I was nervous all year. I didn’t want to dominate to the extent that I did. I’ve been playing long enough to know that the best regular season team always fails in the playoffs, usually in the first round. I’ve seen this story before, and it always ends the same. Last year I backed into the playoffs as the #8 seed and ended up winning the whole thing, beating the top seed in the first round. This year, karma reared its ugly cunt face and I ended up playing that same team I beat last year in the first round again; only this time the roles were reversed.
Needless to say, and if it’s not abundantly obvious by now (apparently I don't know what qualifies as "obvious" these days), I lost last week, week 14, in the first round of the playoffs. According to all the “experts”, I had great matchups this week. Let’s review what CBS’ experts said about a few select players:
Carson Palmer: Three weeks ago, Carson Palmer threw four interceptions in a Bengals loss to the Cardinals. He responded with a three-TD win over Tennessee. Last week, Palmer had another stinker, failing to throw a touchdown at Pittsburgh. The Bengals played on a muddy field, slowing down the speed of the game, which Palmer admitted later to not accounting for. Palmer is expected to rebound once again in Week 14 when the Rams come to Cincy. St. Louis has allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season and at least two passing scores in four of their last six games. Analysis: Palmer should feast on the Rams' secondary in Week 14. Start him without any reservations in the coming week.
Chris Henry: After being heavily involved in the Bengals' first two games once his suspension ended, WR Chris Henry has reeled in his last two contests, totaling five catches for 72 yards with no touchdowns. Henry's role has appeared to diminish, but the Bengals are expected to toss the ball around against a Rams pass defense that's allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season and at least two passing scores in four of their last six games. Analysis: Henry has slipped into No. 3 Fantasy WR territory thanks to his lack of production, but he's fine to start this week in that role. Give him a look before finalizing your Week 14 lineup.
Adrian Peterson: Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (knee) is listed as probable for Week 14 at San Francisco. He returned to a full practice Friday after limited reps earlier in the week. Peterson is averaging 119.7 rushing yards per game -- 28 more than any other player -- and his 10 rushing touchdowns put him one behind San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson for the league lead. Analysis: The Vikings boast the best rushing offense in the league with 176.8 yards per game and an NFL-best 17 touchdowns. They'll oppose a San Francisco run defense which is among the league's worst, giving up 124.0 yards per game. Peterson returned to the lineup Week 13 from a knee sprain that kept him sidelined for a few games. He rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries. The Vikings were just being cautious with him by limiting his practice reps earlier in the week. Make sure he is in your Fantasy starting lineup Week 14.
Carson Palmer and Chris Henry combined for 6.7 points; their kicker totaled 15. And Adrian Peterson totaled 3 yards on 14 carries (0.2 yards/carry). Add to that the fact that Fitzgerald was a game time decision. I ordinarily would have started Fitzgerald and Marshall, but could not risk Fitzgerald not playing. So I started Henry and when Fitzgerald was deemed active, put him in place of Marshall. Henry got 3.2 points; Marshall 39. Not that it would have mattered; I still would have lost. But this all just goes to show that 90% of fantasy football comes down to just pure luck. I had the easiest schedule this year. I scored the most points and “allowed” the fewest, meaning I got lucky each week. I played the right team. That’s what this all comes down to; matchups. Not who your players are playing against, but the fantasy team you’re playing against. I was up against Hasselbeck, Tomlinson, and Addai this week, the three of whom totaled more points (101.1) than my entire starting roster (93.7). The highest scoring team this week, with 164.3 points, was the team that finished dead last with a 3-10 record. Meanwhile, the top scoring team all season (read: ME) scored the 4th fewest points this week.
You can analyze player stats and matchups until you’re blue in the cock, it doesn’t fucking matter. I made all the right moves all season. I grabbed Brandon Marshall for $1 off of waivers. I picked up Jason Campbell during Palmer’s bye week and he put up 23.9 points. When Cadillac Williams got hurt I picked up Earnest Graham instead of Michael Pittman, either of whom could have assumed the starter’s role. When Ronnie Brown got hurt I picked up his replacement Chatman. When Addai got hurt I picked up Keith, with the expectation being even when Addai gets healthy, they’ll begin using Keith more often similar to how they used Rhodes/Addai last season, and with the hope that Indianapolis would clinch early and rest Addai during the fantasy playoffs. When that didn’t pan out, I picked up Morris during Shaun Alexander’s absence. I was the top ranked coach in terms of starting the right players each week, as I will analyze further later on. I did everything right, everything went my way to dominate 90% of the season. It’s all just the luck of the draw. I did exactly what any of these self-proclaimed asshole “experts” would have done. It’s all about having good timing. Was I supposed to bench Palmer and Peterson this week? Of course not. You just don’t know. Anything can happen. And by anything, I mean Palmer throwing at least 3 TD’s vs. San Francisco and Peterson running for at least 125 yards and a score against the Bears next week. It’s inevitable.
You can debate all you want about whether Kellen Clemens or Fred Jackson or Patrick Crayton or L.J. Smith are worth starting. If the superstars don't produce, you're not going to fucking win. You know what a real EXPERT would do? Tell people to bench Palmer or Peterson last week or Manning when he threw 6 INT's against the Chargers. These experts are supposed to provide advice for helping people win, right? Well what better advice could I have gotten than to start Trent Edwards (34 points) over Carson Palmer (3)? That's the thing that determines more wins and losses than anything else - the production you get from your best players. Any contributions from these second, sometimes third-tier players they analyze would just be bonus. Icing on the cake as it were. They're not the difference makers. Getting 0.3 points from Peterson was far more devastating than getting 0.8 points from Shockey.
Over $1,500, gone. 3 rushing yards. Against the 49ers. What the fuck! Not that I can be too upset. I get to keep him next year, so hopefully Childress knows this and will just rest his knee the final few games and prepare for 2,106 next season.
This was my first year in this CBS league. It’s a 12-team auction keeper league, $100 salary cap. I never participated in an auction league or a keeper league, so was not sure what to expect. I had no real strategy going into the draft other than to drink as much as possible.
This is a very high scoring league, with bonuses awarded for 100-yard rushing/receiving games, 300-yard passing games, 40-50 yard plays, 40-50 yard FG’s, etc. Receivers get 5 yards/point; running backs 10 yards/point, QB’s 25/point. The roster is very simple, with 1 starting QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST. The bench must mirror the starting lineup; not allowing a bench of 3 RB’s or 4 QB’s or something. With that said, here is the team I drafted:
QB) Carson Palmer, Cin $35
RB) Ronnie Brown, Mia $12
RB) Adrian Peterson, Min $5
WR) Larry Fitzgerald, Ari $20
WR) Calvin Johnson, Det $4
TE) Jeremy Shockey, NYG $12
K) Shayne Graham, Cin $1
D/ST) Jaguars $1
QB) Tarvaris Jackson, Min $1
RB) Brandon Jackson, GB $1
RB) Reuben Droughns, NYG $1
WR) Matt Jones, Jac $3
WR) Robert Meachem, NO $1
TE) David Martin, Mia $1
K) John Kasay, Car $1
D/ST) Colts $1
Each transaction costs $2 each, so to drop a player for another player costs $4, the total of which goes into the winner-take-all pot. I ended up making 10 transactions:
9/12/07 Drop Robert Meachem, add Brandon Marshall, Den
9/19/07 Drop Matt Jones, add Derrick Mason, Bal
10/3/07 Drop Reuben Droughns, add Earnest Graham, TB
10/3/07 Drop Tarvaris Jackson, add Jason Campbell, Was
10/24/07 Drop Ronnie Brown, add Jesse Chatman, Mia
10/24/07 Drop Brandon Jackson, add Kenton Keith, Ind
10/31/07 Drop David Martin, add Leonard Pope, Ari
11/7/07 Drop Calvin Johnson, add Chris Henry, Cin
11/21/07 Drop Kenton Keith, add Maurice Morris, Sea
11/21/07 Drop Derrick Mason, add D.J. Hackett, Sea
I was in first place all year since the end of week 5, and also led the league in total points for the season. I finished the regular season at 11-2. I lost in week 2 (the week Palmer threw 6 TDs) by 0.2 points and got blown out in week 8 when I scored a season low 75.5 points; the only regular season week I scored under 100 points. I essentially dominated the entire season, biding my time until the playoffs. But I was nervous all year. I didn’t want to dominate to the extent that I did. I’ve been playing long enough to know that the best regular season team always fails in the playoffs, usually in the first round. I’ve seen this story before, and it always ends the same. Last year I backed into the playoffs as the #8 seed and ended up winning the whole thing, beating the top seed in the first round. This year, karma reared its ugly cunt face and I ended up playing that same team I beat last year in the first round again; only this time the roles were reversed.
Needless to say, and if it’s not abundantly obvious by now (apparently I don't know what qualifies as "obvious" these days), I lost last week, week 14, in the first round of the playoffs. According to all the “experts”, I had great matchups this week. Let’s review what CBS’ experts said about a few select players:
Carson Palmer: Three weeks ago, Carson Palmer threw four interceptions in a Bengals loss to the Cardinals. He responded with a three-TD win over Tennessee. Last week, Palmer had another stinker, failing to throw a touchdown at Pittsburgh. The Bengals played on a muddy field, slowing down the speed of the game, which Palmer admitted later to not accounting for. Palmer is expected to rebound once again in Week 14 when the Rams come to Cincy. St. Louis has allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season and at least two passing scores in four of their last six games. Analysis: Palmer should feast on the Rams' secondary in Week 14. Start him without any reservations in the coming week.
Chris Henry: After being heavily involved in the Bengals' first two games once his suspension ended, WR Chris Henry has reeled in his last two contests, totaling five catches for 72 yards with no touchdowns. Henry's role has appeared to diminish, but the Bengals are expected to toss the ball around against a Rams pass defense that's allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season and at least two passing scores in four of their last six games. Analysis: Henry has slipped into No. 3 Fantasy WR territory thanks to his lack of production, but he's fine to start this week in that role. Give him a look before finalizing your Week 14 lineup.
Adrian Peterson: Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (knee) is listed as probable for Week 14 at San Francisco. He returned to a full practice Friday after limited reps earlier in the week. Peterson is averaging 119.7 rushing yards per game -- 28 more than any other player -- and his 10 rushing touchdowns put him one behind San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson for the league lead. Analysis: The Vikings boast the best rushing offense in the league with 176.8 yards per game and an NFL-best 17 touchdowns. They'll oppose a San Francisco run defense which is among the league's worst, giving up 124.0 yards per game. Peterson returned to the lineup Week 13 from a knee sprain that kept him sidelined for a few games. He rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries. The Vikings were just being cautious with him by limiting his practice reps earlier in the week. Make sure he is in your Fantasy starting lineup Week 14.
Carson Palmer and Chris Henry combined for 6.7 points; their kicker totaled 15. And Adrian Peterson totaled 3 yards on 14 carries (0.2 yards/carry). Add to that the fact that Fitzgerald was a game time decision. I ordinarily would have started Fitzgerald and Marshall, but could not risk Fitzgerald not playing. So I started Henry and when Fitzgerald was deemed active, put him in place of Marshall. Henry got 3.2 points; Marshall 39. Not that it would have mattered; I still would have lost. But this all just goes to show that 90% of fantasy football comes down to just pure luck. I had the easiest schedule this year. I scored the most points and “allowed” the fewest, meaning I got lucky each week. I played the right team. That’s what this all comes down to; matchups. Not who your players are playing against, but the fantasy team you’re playing against. I was up against Hasselbeck, Tomlinson, and Addai this week, the three of whom totaled more points (101.1) than my entire starting roster (93.7). The highest scoring team this week, with 164.3 points, was the team that finished dead last with a 3-10 record. Meanwhile, the top scoring team all season (read: ME) scored the 4th fewest points this week.
You can analyze player stats and matchups until you’re blue in the cock, it doesn’t fucking matter. I made all the right moves all season. I grabbed Brandon Marshall for $1 off of waivers. I picked up Jason Campbell during Palmer’s bye week and he put up 23.9 points. When Cadillac Williams got hurt I picked up Earnest Graham instead of Michael Pittman, either of whom could have assumed the starter’s role. When Ronnie Brown got hurt I picked up his replacement Chatman. When Addai got hurt I picked up Keith, with the expectation being even when Addai gets healthy, they’ll begin using Keith more often similar to how they used Rhodes/Addai last season, and with the hope that Indianapolis would clinch early and rest Addai during the fantasy playoffs. When that didn’t pan out, I picked up Morris during Shaun Alexander’s absence. I was the top ranked coach in terms of starting the right players each week, as I will analyze further later on. I did everything right, everything went my way to dominate 90% of the season. It’s all just the luck of the draw. I did exactly what any of these self-proclaimed asshole “experts” would have done. It’s all about having good timing. Was I supposed to bench Palmer and Peterson this week? Of course not. You just don’t know. Anything can happen. And by anything, I mean Palmer throwing at least 3 TD’s vs. San Francisco and Peterson running for at least 125 yards and a score against the Bears next week. It’s inevitable.
You can debate all you want about whether Kellen Clemens or Fred Jackson or Patrick Crayton or L.J. Smith are worth starting. If the superstars don't produce, you're not going to fucking win. You know what a real EXPERT would do? Tell people to bench Palmer or Peterson last week or Manning when he threw 6 INT's against the Chargers. These experts are supposed to provide advice for helping people win, right? Well what better advice could I have gotten than to start Trent Edwards (34 points) over Carson Palmer (3)? That's the thing that determines more wins and losses than anything else - the production you get from your best players. Any contributions from these second, sometimes third-tier players they analyze would just be bonus. Icing on the cake as it were. They're not the difference makers. Getting 0.3 points from Peterson was far more devastating than getting 0.8 points from Shockey.
Over $1,500, gone. 3 rushing yards. Against the 49ers. What the fuck! Not that I can be too upset. I get to keep him next year, so hopefully Childress knows this and will just rest his knee the final few games and prepare for 2,106 next season.