There is no such thing as fantasy football “experts”

[Bloody Anus]

Oh yeah..
Week 9 results. 4/13 = 31%. Ugh. Terrible. You may think I’d be disappointed at these results, but actually this is perfect. This is exactly what I wanted to have happen. This perfectly illustrates everything I laid out in my initial hypothesis – that A) fantasy football experts are useless, because B) Anything can happen. These week 9 results are a perfect illustration of how things that are expected to happen, don’t always happen. The criteria, the cheat sheet that every fantasy “expert” uses will always look something like this, the same thing I used: <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byteam?group=Defense&cat=Total">http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/bytea ... &cat=Total</a><!-- m -->

Without this page of statistics, fantasy football experts would be as clueless and useless as something that is really, really, clueless and useless. (I’m not in the mood to come up with any stupid ass analogies. He’d be as useless as a one-legged man in an ass kicking contest. THAT’S RIGHT, JR!)

Anyway, the point is almost every single fantasy “expert” out there predicted a big game from Philip Rivers. Why? Simple. The Vikings came in as the worst defense in the league against the pass, giving up more yardage than anyone. Rivers is a good QB on a very good offense, so it only makes sense that he torches such a bad secondary, right? Instead he has one of the worst games of his career. The Broncos came in as the worst rush defense in the league. Kevin Jones is a good RB, so it only makes sense that he torches such a bad front 7, right? Instead he is held in check for only 71 yards. The Jaguars came in as one of the top passing defenses in the league, and got sodomized to the tune of 445 yards and three Drew Brees touchdowns. Same goes for the Ravens and Roethlisberger’s 5-TD half.

The point of all this is that all these “experts” base their “expertise” on is the law of averages. If a team has gotten beat week in and week out against the pass, it only makes sense that the QB/WR they’re going against this week will have big games. But as most of my picks this week prove, just because something should happen does not mean that it will. The fact that the first eight experts I analyzed produced with 48% accuracy proves this. It also gives credence to another thing I laid out in my introduction: “It just means you have a moderate understanding of how to read and interpret statistics. Anybody can do that.”

With that said, here are week 10’s probabilities.

[IrishAlkey]

I love this thread.

[The Jays]

We all do.

And we love you too.

[IrishAlkey]

I'm sad nobody did fantasy basketball here this year.

=(

[Galt]

Didn't you freak out and do something really gay and stupid regarding either messageboard or radio drama like 6 or so months ago?

What was that all about?

[Bloody Anus]

Week 10 I went 50/90, just like the week 3 asshole did. He accurately picked 19 start 'ems and 31 sit 'ems, I accurately picked 21 start 'ems and 29 sit 'ems. Just as a reminder, this is the same guy that went all out by suggesting to start the likes of Brady, Westbrook, and the Patriots D. I have nothing else to say about week 10's picks except that Justin Peele was the only TE out of 7 I had as a start 'em that didn't score a TD, and Alge Crumpler was the only TE out of 7 I had as a sit 'em that did score a TD. Interesting.

Here's Week 11. Just went straight with the stat page this week.

Speaking of which, look at this dumbass cover story on CBS this week.

All signs point to these assholes basing their alleged expertise on the ten seconds they spend looking at this and this.

1 + 1 = 2. Genius!

[fbd]

I'm sad nobody did fantasy basketball here this year.

=(

i miss dominating you people in fantasy sports...anyone up for a mid-season basketball league?

[GonzoStyle]

I'm sad nobody did fantasy basketball here this year.

=(

i miss dominating you people in fantasy sports...anyone up for a mid-season basketball league?

.001 is not dominating

[Bloody Anus]

I went 8/17 week 11, 47% and one greater than the ESPN expert went in week 4. And what did all those magical expert signs lead to for Willie Parker? 21 carries, 52 yards. What a great day! Still, the Jets run defense is among the league’s worst, which is why Marion Barber III is a great “start ‘em” candidate for week 12.

These picks mirror week 5’s picks, in which those two dickless wonders over at SI.com used their combined forces to deem Ronnie Brown and Larry Fitzgerald worthy of starting. As such, I decided to take a couple of similar liberties of my own (Parker & Burress).

[IrishAlkey]

Didn't you freak out and do something really gay and stupid regarding either messageboard or radio drama like 6 or so months ago?

What was that all about?

If you consider sitting on a sofa, recovering from surgery, really gay and stupid, then yes.

Guilty as charged!

Anyway, I have a current fantasy b-ball team that consists of Steve Nash, Manu Ginobli, Paul Pierce, Chris Bosh, Rasheed Wallace, Carlos Boozer, Zydrunas Ilgauskis, Rudy Gay and some decent guys on my bench... not like I need a bench.

DOMINATION!

[GonzoStyle]

so you were the only one to show up for the draft?

[Bloody Anus]

15/30 for week 12, but only 4/16 on the start em’s. Why? Uncharacteristic performances and injuries:

Cincinnati’s defense played well and allowed no TD’s to Tennessee and Vince Young.
Eli Manning threw 4 INT’s against the league’s worst secondary.
Willie Parker was playing in mud.
Cedric Benson got injured after averaging 6 yards on his first 8 carries.
Andre Johnson was held in check against the team that’s allowed more passing TD’s than anyone.
D.J. Hackett reinjured his ankle.
Jeremy Shockey was directly impacted by the aforementioned Manning.

This still doesn’t change anything. The strategy and rationale behind these picks remains the same for me and I’m sure every self proclaimed “expert” heading into week 13.

[Bloody Anus]

So now I have 6 weeks of experts start em’s/sit em’s and 6 weeks of my own. I will analyze all of this later. First, I will explore some other things that these self proclaimed experts do. In addition to providing a (largely ineffective) list of who to start and sit for a given week, these fuckers also offer up advice of who to start over who; i.e. why you should start player X over player Y. For this current example, I will be examining CBS’ “Fantasy Faceoffs” segment, in which two “experts” offer up a differing point of view on who to start. Here is the link for their week 13 version: <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://lvz.football.sportsline.com/news/10498361">http://lvz.football.sportsline.com/news/10498361</a><!-- m -->

Now, before I get into this, I first must address how useless these articles are. I’ve read a few of them over the course of the season, and they have offered up very little useful information. The biggest reason for this is that they are just comparing two random, arbitrary players. For example, they first explore who to start between Earnest Graham at New Orleans or Edgerrin James vs. Cleveland. An interesting debate, sure, but who cares? How many people does this actually affect? What percentage of owners actually own both Graham and James? I’m sure there are some that do have both of them that will be faced with this dilemma, but of all these “dilemma” articles I’ve read over the course of the season, not once have they debated between two players that I actually own, or that anybody in my league owns. Debating the merits of choosing between two random, similar players may be a fun way to waste your time, but it doesn’t really prove anything. It doesn’t mean a goddamn thing.

For the purposes of this week’s study, I will ignore Dave Richard’s picks and focus solely on Jamey Eisenberg, whose alleged expertise I’ve already brought into question. I revealed how he makes his selections based on the matchup statistics, now let’s delve a little bit deeper into why he likes certain players over others.

Edgerrin James vs. Cleveland over Earnest Graham at New Orleans

-Wouldn’t sit Graham unless it was a choice between Graham and James
-Cleveland is 28th against the run, have allowed 6 TD’s
-Saints are 10th against the run with 5 TD’s allowed
-It all comes down to the matchup

Fred Taylor at Indianapolis over Maurice Jones-Drew at Indianapolis

-Taylor has been more productive the last 2 weeks vs. San Diego & Buffalo
-2 TD’s the past 3 games vs. Jones-Drew’s 3

Kolby Smith vs. San Diego over Thomas Jones at Miami

-Smith had 2 TD’s in his first start last week; Jones has 0 all season
-Chargers have allowed rushing TD’s in 3 of their past 4 games

Vince Young vs. Houston over Matt Schaub at Tennessee

-Young has averaged 269 yards passing the last 3 weeks
-Texans defense was just gashed by the Browns
-Young loves facing Houston, his hometown
-Passing TD and 2 rushing TD’s last year vs. Houston
-Has something to prove after missing first game in Houston this year

Lee Evans at Washington over Justin Gage vs. Houston

-Washington’s secondary is depleted and emotionally spent
-Will take advantage with a healthy Trent Edwards

Chris Chambers at Kansas City over Javon Walker at Oakland

-Chambers the past 2 weeks: 9 rec, 115 yards, TD
-Walker not 100% healthy and has played in 1 game the last 8 weeks. Wait until he’s healthy to play him.

Vikings DST vs. Detroit over Bears DST vs. NY Giants

-The Bears DST has done nothing without Devin Hester
-Vikings past 2 games: 3 defensive TD, 7 sacks, 5 INT
-Jon Kitna last 3 games vs. Minnesota: 3 TD, 7 INT, 9 sacks against

At the onset he backed up my belief of it all coming down to matchups. That’s why he likes James over Graham - Cleveland’s defense is dreadful. But then the rationale for the rest of his picks don’t follow this same logic. Look no further than the Smith vs. Jones debate. San Diego’s run defense is ranked 21st with 8 TD’s allowed, while Miami’s is 30th with 13 TD’s allowed. Smith had 2 more TD’s last week in his first ever start than Jones has had all year. But in keeping with his “it all comes down to the matchup” mantra, who did Smith play last week? Oakland, who ranks dead last in run defense, giving up a league high 18 TD’s. Who’s given up the next most TD’s? Miami. So he’s essentially contradicting himself. He doesn’t even believe in his own methodology.

In the case of the Jacksonville RB’s, he cites their performances over the previous 2-3 weeks to support his choice. Taylor has had 34 carries for 184 yards and a TD the last 2 weeks, while Jones-Drew had 22 carries for 43 yards and 2 TD’s. So why doesn’t recent performance come into play when considering Graham vs. James? In the last 3 games, James has 57 carries for 190 yards (3.33 per carry) and 1 TD versus Graham’s 72 for 301 (4.18) and 3 TDs. Then there’s Evans and Gage. The last 3 weeks, Evans has gone for 10 receptions for 124 yards and no TD’s while Gage recorded 17 for 254 and 1 TD.

Speaking of the Evans-Gage debate, he cites the state of Washington’s secondary and the team’s overall mental state in light of the Sean Taylor incident. He also likes Vince Young this week because of his connection to the Houston area. These are two personal, motivational aspects of the game that he conveniently decided to look at in lieu of what he looks at best – statistics and matchups. Why? Why would Vince Young be extra motivated to perform well against the Texans just because he grew up in Texas? This is not to say that he will not play harder or better because of this, but why not then look at how these factors play in to other debates? Justin Gage attended Missouri. Maybe he’s going to be let down by their loss on Saturday and not play as energized had they won and were still #1 and had a decent chance at competing for the National Championship. And why is he only focusing in on the Redskins in regards to Taylor. There are plenty of former teammates, college and pro, whose performance could be affected similarly to the Redskins. Edgerrin James is a fellow Miami alum, so he could just as easily be as emotionally spent, if not more, than the Redskins’ secondary.

It all comes down to convenience. He conveniently cites statistical data when it fits his needs. When it doesn’t, he reaches for other factors such as how the teams/players have performed the last 2-3 weeks, what the player has done in the past vs. that team, and extra motivating factors that cannot be quantified by the old reliable statistics page.

In addition to the whole “Houston” effect, he also likes Young over Schaub because of Young’s 269 yard average over the last 3 weeks. Meanwhile, since returning from injury, Schaub has averaged 274 yards the last 2 games. Furthermore, the Titans defense has been torn apart the last 2 weeks. Carson Palmer threw for 283 yards and 3 TD’s last week, Jay Cutler 200 yards and 2 scores the week before, allowing 35 and 34 points respectively. Funny how he conveniently ignores things like this.

The results of these picks are irrelevant, or at least far more irrelevant than the results of the start ‘em-sit ‘em analysis. This is just to see the rationale, the thought process, that goes into being called a fantasy football expert. Still, just for the fuck of it let’s see how he fared in these selections:

James: 24 car, 114 yards
Graham: 22 car, 106 yards, TD, 7 rec, 37 yards
Advantage: Graham. Close, but the TD gives it to Graham.

Taylor: 14 car, 104 yards
Jones-Drew: 11 car, 52 yards, TD, 1 rec, 5 yards
Advantage: Push. Taylor had the yardage, Jones-Drew had the TD.

Smith: 21 car, 83 yards, 2 rec, 1 yard
Jones: 24 car, 75 yards, TD, 1 rec, 25 yards
Advantage: Jones. Close again, but again the TD wins out.

Young: 21-31, 248 yards, 2 TD, INT, 5 car, 44 yards
Schaub: 3-5, 34 yards
Advantage: Young. Put an asterisk next to this one though for the injury.

Evans: 4 rec, 51 yards
Gage: 5 rec, 64 yards, TD
Advantage: Gage

Chambers: 2 rec, 50 yards
Walker: 1 rec, 7 yards
Advantage: Chambers

Vikings: 10 PA, 254 YA, 3 sacks, INT, return TD
Bears: 21 PA, 356 YA, 2 sacks, 2 INT, 2 fumble recoveries
Advantage: Push. The TD would ordinarily clinch it for the Vikings, but not all leagues count return TD’s as points for the D/ST. If it were an INT return, it would be a different story.

So of the seven picks, he got two right and pushed on two others. The two he got right were Young over Schaub and Chambers over Walker. Young was the benefactor of Schaub getting hurt early, otherwise who knows what would have happened. Chambers outperformed Walker, but it’s not as if Chambers exactly lit up the scoreboard either; it’s just that Walker was not involved at all in this his first game back from injury. Out of all the logic he provided above – all 20 reasons – the only thing that came to fruition was saying to wait until a player who has missed two months proves he is fully healthy before inserting him back into lineups. Not exactly the most ground-breaking strategy out there. But apparently the most important prerequisite to be a fantasy football expert, in addition to interpreting a statistics page, is the exercising of common sense. Actually, that's about 90% of what it takes, the remaining 10% being a general working knowledge and interest of all things football.

[Bloody Anus]

All this statistical analysis and number crunching is all well and good and will be expanded on later. But now it’s time to provide the undeniable evidence necessary that there is no skill, no expertise, involved in being a successful fantasy football player. I avoided as best I could revealing too much about my fantasy team this year. I didn’t want to jinx anything by talking shit about how good my team was. But I no longer have to worry about that, so here’s how my fantasy season went.

This was my first year in this CBS league. It’s a 12-team auction keeper league, $100 salary cap. I never participated in an auction league or a keeper league, so was not sure what to expect. I had no real strategy going into the draft other than to drink as much as possible.

This is a very high scoring league, with bonuses awarded for 100-yard rushing/receiving games, 300-yard passing games, 40-50 yard plays, 40-50 yard FG’s, etc. Receivers get 5 yards/point; running backs 10 yards/point, QB’s 25/point. The roster is very simple, with 1 starting QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST. The bench must mirror the starting lineup; not allowing a bench of 3 RB’s or 4 QB’s or something. With that said, here is the team I drafted:

QB) Carson Palmer, Cin $35
RB) Ronnie Brown, Mia $12
RB) Adrian Peterson, Min $5
WR) Larry Fitzgerald, Ari $20
WR) Calvin Johnson, Det $4
TE) Jeremy Shockey, NYG $12
K) Shayne Graham, Cin $1
D/ST) Jaguars $1

QB) Tarvaris Jackson, Min $1
RB) Brandon Jackson, GB $1
RB) Reuben Droughns, NYG $1
WR) Matt Jones, Jac $3
WR) Robert Meachem, NO $1
TE) David Martin, Mia $1
K) John Kasay, Car $1
D/ST) Colts $1

Each transaction costs $2 each, so to drop a player for another player costs $4, the total of which goes into the winner-take-all pot. I ended up making 10 transactions:

9/12/07 Drop Robert Meachem, add Brandon Marshall, Den
9/19/07 Drop Matt Jones, add Derrick Mason, Bal
10/3/07 Drop Reuben Droughns, add Earnest Graham, TB
10/3/07 Drop Tarvaris Jackson, add Jason Campbell, Was
10/24/07 Drop Ronnie Brown, add Jesse Chatman, Mia
10/24/07 Drop Brandon Jackson, add Kenton Keith, Ind
10/31/07 Drop David Martin, add Leonard Pope, Ari
11/7/07 Drop Calvin Johnson, add Chris Henry, Cin
11/21/07 Drop Kenton Keith, add Maurice Morris, Sea
11/21/07 Drop Derrick Mason, add D.J. Hackett, Sea

I was in first place all year since the end of week 5, and also led the league in total points for the season. I finished the regular season at 11-2. I lost in week 2 (the week Palmer threw 6 TDs) by 0.2 points and got blown out in week 8 when I scored a season low 75.5 points; the only regular season week I scored under 100 points. I essentially dominated the entire season, biding my time until the playoffs. But I was nervous all year. I didn’t want to dominate to the extent that I did. I’ve been playing long enough to know that the best regular season team always fails in the playoffs, usually in the first round. I’ve seen this story before, and it always ends the same. Last year I backed into the playoffs as the #8 seed and ended up winning the whole thing, beating the top seed in the first round. This year, karma reared its ugly cunt face and I ended up playing that same team I beat last year in the first round again; only this time the roles were reversed.

Needless to say, and if it’s not abundantly obvious by now (apparently I don't know what qualifies as "obvious" these days), I lost last week, week 14, in the first round of the playoffs. According to all the “experts”, I had great matchups this week. Let’s review what CBS’ experts said about a few select players:

Carson Palmer: Three weeks ago, Carson Palmer threw four interceptions in a Bengals loss to the Cardinals. He responded with a three-TD win over Tennessee. Last week, Palmer had another stinker, failing to throw a touchdown at Pittsburgh. The Bengals played on a muddy field, slowing down the speed of the game, which Palmer admitted later to not accounting for. Palmer is expected to rebound once again in Week 14 when the Rams come to Cincy. St. Louis has allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season and at least two passing scores in four of their last six games. Analysis: Palmer should feast on the Rams' secondary in Week 14. Start him without any reservations in the coming week.

Chris Henry: After being heavily involved in the Bengals' first two games once his suspension ended, WR Chris Henry has reeled in his last two contests, totaling five catches for 72 yards with no touchdowns. Henry's role has appeared to diminish, but the Bengals are expected to toss the ball around against a Rams pass defense that's allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season and at least two passing scores in four of their last six games. Analysis: Henry has slipped into No. 3 Fantasy WR territory thanks to his lack of production, but he's fine to start this week in that role. Give him a look before finalizing your Week 14 lineup.

Adrian Peterson: Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (knee) is listed as probable for Week 14 at San Francisco. He returned to a full practice Friday after limited reps earlier in the week. Peterson is averaging 119.7 rushing yards per game -- 28 more than any other player -- and his 10 rushing touchdowns put him one behind San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson for the league lead. Analysis: The Vikings boast the best rushing offense in the league with 176.8 yards per game and an NFL-best 17 touchdowns. They'll oppose a San Francisco run defense which is among the league's worst, giving up 124.0 yards per game. Peterson returned to the lineup Week 13 from a knee sprain that kept him sidelined for a few games. He rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries. The Vikings were just being cautious with him by limiting his practice reps earlier in the week. Make sure he is in your Fantasy starting lineup Week 14.

Carson Palmer and Chris Henry combined for 6.7 points; their kicker totaled 15. And Adrian Peterson totaled 3 yards on 14 carries (0.2 yards/carry). Add to that the fact that Fitzgerald was a game time decision. I ordinarily would have started Fitzgerald and Marshall, but could not risk Fitzgerald not playing. So I started Henry and when Fitzgerald was deemed active, put him in place of Marshall. Henry got 3.2 points; Marshall 39. Not that it would have mattered; I still would have lost. But this all just goes to show that 90% of fantasy football comes down to just pure luck. I had the easiest schedule this year. I scored the most points and “allowed” the fewest, meaning I got lucky each week. I played the right team. That’s what this all comes down to; matchups. Not who your players are playing against, but the fantasy team you’re playing against. I was up against Hasselbeck, Tomlinson, and Addai this week, the three of whom totaled more points (101.1) than my entire starting roster (93.7). The highest scoring team this week, with 164.3 points, was the team that finished dead last with a 3-10 record. Meanwhile, the top scoring team all season (read: ME) scored the 4th fewest points this week.

You can analyze player stats and matchups until you’re blue in the cock, it doesn’t fucking matter. I made all the right moves all season. I grabbed Brandon Marshall for $1 off of waivers. I picked up Jason Campbell during Palmer’s bye week and he put up 23.9 points. When Cadillac Williams got hurt I picked up Earnest Graham instead of Michael Pittman, either of whom could have assumed the starter’s role. When Ronnie Brown got hurt I picked up his replacement Chatman. When Addai got hurt I picked up Keith, with the expectation being even when Addai gets healthy, they’ll begin using Keith more often similar to how they used Rhodes/Addai last season, and with the hope that Indianapolis would clinch early and rest Addai during the fantasy playoffs. When that didn’t pan out, I picked up Morris during Shaun Alexander’s absence. I was the top ranked coach in terms of starting the right players each week, as I will analyze further later on. I did everything right, everything went my way to dominate 90% of the season. It’s all just the luck of the draw. I did exactly what any of these self-proclaimed asshole “experts” would have done. It’s all about having good timing. Was I supposed to bench Palmer and Peterson this week? Of course not. You just don’t know. Anything can happen. And by anything, I mean Palmer throwing at least 3 TD’s vs. San Francisco and Peterson running for at least 125 yards and a score against the Bears next week. It’s inevitable.

You can debate all you want about whether Kellen Clemens or Fred Jackson or Patrick Crayton or L.J. Smith are worth starting. If the superstars don't produce, you're not going to fucking win. You know what a real EXPERT would do? Tell people to bench Palmer or Peterson last week or Manning when he threw 6 INT's against the Chargers. These experts are supposed to provide advice for helping people win, right? Well what better advice could I have gotten than to start Trent Edwards (34 points) over Carson Palmer (3)? That's the thing that determines more wins and losses than anything else - the production you get from your best players. Any contributions from these second, sometimes third-tier players they analyze would just be bonus. Icing on the cake as it were. They're not the difference makers. Getting 0.3 points from Peterson was far more devastating than getting 0.8 points from Shockey.

Over $1,500, gone. 3 rushing yards. Against the 49ers. What the fuck! Not that I can be too upset. I get to keep him next year, so hopefully Childress knows this and will just rest his knee the final few games and prepare for 2,106 next season.

[Galt]

I hate fantasy football because people insist on having playoffs. The lion's share (or all, actually) of the winnings should go to the regular season winner. In fact, all of it should go to the regular season winner since there should be no playoffs.

How on earth do you get a rookie running back for $5 in a keeper league?

[Bloody Anus]

I actually got 2 rookie running backs, including Jackson. I think it was fairly late in the draft so many teams that bid early were unable to spend more than $1 per player. Also the way the keepers work are you have to pay double to keep him and you have a maximum of $10 dedicated to keepers. So I will keep Peterson next year for $10 but he will be my only keeper.

I will explore this "no playoffs" thing as it makes a lot of sense. People are so set in their retarded ways though. The only logical reason for there to be a playoffs is to make sure the best, most deserving team, doesn't win. The team that produces the most points and wins over the course of 16 or 17 weeks - NOT 3 weeks during the "playoffs" - should be the winner. Period. This will also ensure every week is meaningful. There are still 2 weeks left, but only 4 of the teams are playing for anything. What a waste. I'm sold.

[diceisgod]

I am going to be nice for a sec: If it weren't for this thread & the movie one (and the graph one 6 years ago), you would be as worthless as the 3 other posters here that aren't me.

I take my hat off to you and guarantee you my vote for Poster of the Year 2007.

Keep it up, mate!

[Bloody Anus]

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://lvz.football.sportsline.com/news/10528001">http://lvz.football.sportsline.com/news/10528001</a><!-- m -->

Another thing that these degenerates do is answer questions from idiotic fantasy players too dense, uninformed, unknowledgeable, or a combination thereof, to manage their own fantasy team. I’ve spent the majority of the season attacking the experts, and deservedly so. But the whole reason these experts even exist to begin with is because of these retard players that think they need advice. So now I will take a look at one “expert” and the advice he gives to these cretins that think they need their hands held to have a successful fantasy season.

Before I begin, I must again first point out how inherently flawed this whole entire process is. These people email their favorite “expert” and simply ask who to start. And the jackass answers them! Sometimes it is just a simple matter of “start X over Y and Z, no matter what.” But in order to make a well-informed judgment among two very similar players, there is far more information that needs to be taken into consideration. Not all fantasy leagues are created equal. The league settings have a lot to do with things. These are all questions that the “expert” never considers. How many yards per point do RBs/WRs get? Are there points for receptions? How many starters do you play overall, and how many per position? What is the scoring system? How deep is the league? Who are you going against? And the most important of all, what does the rest of your roster look like? I see experts giving trade advice to people who just ask shit like, “should I trade Willie Parker, Andre Johnson, and Kevin Curtis for Brett Favre and Terrell Owens”, without giving any further details as to the league settings, scoring system, and what the rest of his team looks like. How fucking stupid is that!? I suppose there are enough mind-numbingly stupid people in this country that buy into this crap.

The first moron in this article is in a keeper league and asks who to keep between Chad Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Matt Hasselbeck, or whether he should pick up and keep Ronnie Brown.

The response by Michael Hurcomb: I think you already have your answer: no. The guy you most likely will keep is Edwards. Johnson is a close second. It doesn't hurt to add Brown in lieu of either Watson or Jackson, but Brown will becoming off a serious knee injury next season and might even have a new backfield mate in Darren McFadden. Also, you can likely swipe Brown in possibly Round 3 or 4; whereas there is a chance Edwards' value is elevated to a Round 2 pick.

I’m not debating his choice of Edwards; in fact I’d be inclined to agree with him. But his reasoning is flawed. He’s saying the Dolphins might draft Darren McFadden, which could take value away from Brown. Well, what about the Browns? Cleveland might give Brady Quinn a chance to start next year, which could take value away from Edwards. I don’t know how likely it is that he overtakes Anderson after the year he had, but why would you even consider that? The Vikings might have a new QB next year, but that’s not going to go into my thinking of keeping Peterson. Steve Hutchinson might get hurt next year. You can’t base your decisions on things like that. And how do you know how valuable WRs are vs. RBs in this league? How do you know it’s even a standard style draft? Shouldn’t this factor into the decision making more than what a team might do in the draft?


I'm in a Fantasy Football "pickle" this week. I have three outstanding backs: Brian Westbrook (at Dallas), Willis McGahee (vs. Miami) and uber-hot Ryan Grant (at St. Louis). I'm not sure which two guys I should play this week. My gut is telling me to sit Westbrook, but my head is telling me that he's just too talented to ride the pine. I could also sit McGahee because he's coming off of a brutal week, but he's playing the lowly Dolphins. Help please! --Casey Durnin, Vancouver

What a fucking idiot. Yeah, go ahead and bench Westbrook, pickle dick. That’s the advice I’d give to this loser. If you’re this far into the season and you need advice on whether or not to start Brian Westbrook, you deserve to lose. I hope his kneel down at the 1 ended up costing this guy money. The choice between McGahee and Grant is not so easy. Predictably, Hurcomb suggests to start McGahee because of the matchup with the worst run defense in the league. I would have done the same. Was it the right decision?

Grant: 18 car, 55 yards, TD, 2 rec, 5 yards, lost fumble.
McGahee: 29 car, 104 yards, 1 rec, 2 yards.

PUSH

The next morbidly unconfident ball-less jerkoff needed help deciding between Dwayne Bowe (vs. Ten), Anthony Gonzalez (at Oak), or Jabar Gaffney (vs. NYJ). At least he gave the small courtesy of revealing his top 2 receivers. Though once again the rest of his team, league settings, scoring, etc. was not revealed. Still, that didn’t prevent this expert from looking like a goon:

Gonzalez had his breakout performance against the Ravens in Week 14. He caught six passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns. However, Baltimore's secondary was a little beat up and without top corner Chris McAlister. The Raiders' secondary is in perfect health and will showcase a top-five pass defense against the Colts. Gonzalez will likely remain in the starting lineup as Marvin Harrison (knee) is still a longshot to play.

Okay, so Gonzalez is not a good start because of the matchup. He had a breakout performance last week, he’s still in the starting lineup, and he has Peyton Manning throwing to him. But Oakland’s had a good secondary all year, so Gonzalez isn’t worth starting. And all year, the best QB Oakland has played against was Favre, last week, who threw for 266 yards and 2 TD’s to 2 different receivers, including an 80-yard bomb. And now they’re facing Peyton Manning.

Gaffney, who is at best the fourth wide receiver in New England, is posting stats better than any non-starting wide receiver in the NFL. He does have a touchdown in three straight weeks, but 56 of his 122 yards last week came on one play. If he doesn't get the big play, his numbers suffer. But we could very well see a ton of big plays Sunday as the Patriots look to pound the Jets into submission.

Let’s just conveniently forget about the forecast for Sunday in New England. Brady’s obviously going to throw 4 TD’s against the lowly Jets, and at least one of them will surely go to Gaffney, even though he’s at best Brady’s 4th option.

Lastly, Bowe's numbers have fallen off in the second half of the season as the Chiefs play QB carousel. He is no longer a reliable Fantasy WR and playing the eighth best pass defense in the NFL in Week 15 doesn't help his cause. I can't believe I am going to say this, but Gaffney is the flavor of the month and probably your best bet.

And now we revert back to the matchups. Tennessee’s 8th-best pass defense and Oakland’s 5th-best pass defense warrant starting Gaffney in the snow. Brilliant! The result:

Gonzalez: 7 rec, 86 yards, TD
Bowe: 5 rec, 64 yards
Gaffney: 2 rec, 8 yards

Advantage: Gonzalez
WRONG!

Next we have have Selvin Young at Houston or Clinton Portis at the Giants. He picked Young.
Young: 8 car, 34 yards, 5 rec, 8 yards
Portis: 25 car, 126 yards, TD

Advantage: Portis
WRONG!

Roddy White (at TB) or Kevin Curtis (at Dal)

Many Fantasy owners are curious to know what will happen to White's production now that Bobby Petrino has exited stage left. My only answer is that very little should change. The interim Falcons coaching staff realizes White is their best option at wide receiver and will continue to feed him the ball. He has a touchdown in each of his last three games with Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Chris Redman, Oscar the Grouch, Tom Brady's infant child, etc., throwing him passes. Curtis continues to give us erratic performances and had only five catches for 51 yards in his earlier meeting with Dallas.

1) You’re not funny.
2) You’re wrong yet again.

White: 1 rec, 4 yards
Curtis: 5 rec, 40 yards

Advantage: Curtis
WRONG!

Larry Fitzgerald (at NO) or Braylon Edwards (vs. Buf)

First of all, how shallow can a league be that you have to decide between two #1 receivers? What is this, a 6-team league? Who is the other must-start WR that mandates Fitzgerald or Edwards must be benched? Or is this a league that only starts 1 WR a week? In any event, asshole face’s response says it all:

Fitzgerald returned to the gridiron in Week 14 after missing a game with a groin injury. He caught six passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. His score came late in the fourth quarter with the game well out of reach against Seattle. He didn't have running mate Anquan Boldin (toe) and there is no guarantee he will be back this week. Despite the numbers, Fitzgerald struggled because there was no real threat to pull the Seahawks defenders away. Still, Fitzgerald has six touchdowns in his last four games. Edwards' breakout season continues as he now has 13 touchdowns and one in three straight games. The Bills and Saints both have pathetic pass defenses, so this one is a real toss up. My pick: Fitzgerald, especially if Boldin is healthy.

Don’t you fucking people see a pattern here? Don’t you see what he is doing to make his decisions? Don’t you realize that you, too, can use the tools that the experts use to sound so smart? All he did was look at recent performance and, since it’s a question regarding wide receivers, the opponents’ pass defense ranking. If it were a running back, he’d toggle his view to show the run defense ranking. That’s all there fucking is to it. You don’t have to consider factors such as near blizzard conditions in Cleveland. Oh sure, you can write about things you remember from watching last week’s game to try and sound smart and well-informed. Fitzgerald’s TD was late and meaningless. But it’s always going to come down to matchups with these people. That’s what determines the expertise of their advice 90% of the time. I especially like how he throws in “especially if Boldin is healthy.” Well, what if he’s not, dick for brains? Then what? Then would you start Edwards? What if Boldin – or Fitzgerald - is a game time decision? Both games are early, so he’ll have time to make the adjustment either way. Don’t just fucking leave your reader hanging like that. What an inconsiderate prick.

There is something majorly fucked up with this league that he can’t start both Fitzgerald and Edwards, so I’m not even going to count the results for this one. Besides, it would probably end in a push anyway, with neither doing too much despite facing “pathetic pass defenses.”

Donald Lee (at Stl) or Jeremy Shockey (vs. Was)

Shockey is having a pretty bad season and it can easily be summed up by his first two December games -- three catches for 29 yards and zero touchdowns. But it is not entirely his fault. He doesn't exactly have an All-Pro quarterback slinging him passes. Lee, on the other hand, does have an All-Pro caliber QB and the fifth-year tight end out of Mississippi State is experiencing a career season (569 yards, five TDs). Shockey did have one of his better games this season against the Redskins Week 3 (five catches for 79 yards), but Lee is the more reliable target.

Okay, so now we’re going to look at the QB’s? Only when analyzing TE’s though. He didn’t even mention Kurt Warner or Derek Anderson in the previous pick, or Brodie Croyle or Peyton Manning from that earlier receiver question. Why not cite the Rams’ and Redskins’ pass defense rankings? Why are there a different set of rules for deciding between TE’s as there is for deciding WR’s? The answer is simple: LAZINESS.

Shockey: 2 rec, 18 yards
Lee: 1 rec, 4 yards, TD

Advantage: Lee
RIGHT!

Chester Taylor (vs. Chi) or LenDale White (at KC)

Taylor has just 22 carries in the last two games as he is once again sharing the rushing responsibilities with rookie sensation Adrian Peterson. Taylor had less carries than a banged up Peterson Week 14 against the 49ers, but still managed 101 yards on eight carries. Granted, 84 yards came on one run, but he still has at least one touchdown in four straight games and the Vikings are committed to putting the ball in his hands. White returned from Fantasy oblivion in Week 14 against the Chargers to rush for 113 yards and a touchdown. He had been sharing carries with Chris Brown in the previous four games and it is really anyone's guess on a weekly basis how the Titans intend to use their running backs. My pick: White, unless Peterson is in street clothes and that leaves Taylor with the bulk of carries.

Once again he qualifies his pick with the injury status of one of the players’ teammates. Peterson was likely to play all week, so the only way he’d be in street clothes would be if he were a late, game time scratch. As of Saturday night and Sunday morning, there was nothing indicating he’d be unable to play. HOWEVER, had he not played, what good would it have done this guy? Taylor played on Monday night, while White played on Sunday. So he’d have had to have come to a decision by Sunday. A clear-cut, qualifier-free decision. Is that so hard to make? Instead let’s give your reader, who took time out of his very busy life of washing dishes to write to you seeking your advice, a very vague representation of an ANSWER to what should be a very straightforward question. Idiots, on both ends of the monitor.

White: 24 car, 93 yards
Taylor: 5 car, 31 yards, 1 rec, 7 yards

Advantage: White
RIGHT!, unless you don’t have the balls to commit to a straightforward answer.

Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Jac) or Carson Palmer (at SF)

The Bengals have had a very frustrating season, and as a result, Palmer's numbers have suffered. The fact he has zero touchdowns and two interceptions in his last two games is proof enough he is driving Fantasy owners crazy. He does have 21 touchdowns passes, but also 17 interceptions. Roethlisberger has had a very pleasing Fantasy season and his numbers (26 TDs, 11 INTs) look more like what we would expect from Palmer. The Jaguars pass defense is not as strong has it has been in past years, but they have only allowed 15 passing touchdowns and the 49ers have allowed 20. My pick: Palmer finally gets on track Week 15.

That whole reply could have just as easily been done by not writing a single word and instead providing 2 links:

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byposition?pos=QB">http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byposition?pos=QB</a><!-- m -->
<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byteam?group=Defense&cat=Passing&conference=NFL&year=season_2007&sort=530&old_category=Total&old_group=Offense">http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/bytea ... up=Offense</a><!-- m -->

Or, if he wanted to be a bigger dick than usual, he could have replied by telling Juan Casanova Jr. to take some initiative and responsibility for his life and find his way to a fucking stat page. It will make these decisions so much easier. Then you won’t have to waste your time emailing me while I’m trying to get my much-needed experts sleep, to keep me extra experty for years to come.

Palmer: 19-31, 251 yards, TD
Roethlisberger: 16-33, 146 yards, 3 TD

Advantage: Roethlisberger
WRONG!

As if he were going out of his way to further prove my point, he ends his little advice column with this gem:

If I told you that 13 of the top 20 Fantasy scorers heading into Week 15 were quarterbacks, would you believe me? There has been such a priority put on drafting Fantasy running backs, but the stats in 2007 show that drafting a reliable quarterback is as important as making sure your running back stable is complete. Add to the fact that running backs are among the most tackled players in the NFL, we are seeing a lot of tandems emerge, further dropping some players' Fantasy value. Still, in our latest mock draft looking ahead to next season, 18 of the first 24 picks were running backs. Fantasy prescription: As some Fantasy owners already begin to ponder 2008 draft strategies, I offer the advice that you shouldn't overlook quarterbacks or elite wide receivers in the early rounds. The numbers don't lie.

If I told you that not everyone is looking at the same list of fantasy scorers as you are, would you believe me? Or just spew some more nonsense from your presumptuous mouth? Yeah, you’re really giving some world class advice there. It’s important to have a reliable QB. I’ll need to write that down and remember that for next year. I’ll also need to remember that the numbers don’t lie. Except when you add the WRONG ONES.

There’s something about Darwin Walker at the end of the article, but I’m just spent already from sifting through this idiocy. Of his 7 graded picks, he got 2 right. Yet hundreds more will be clamoring next week for his advice. What a great fucking system. Only in America can consistent ineptitude be so continually rewarded. Get a clue.

[Bloody Anus]

Get a panda.

[diceisgod]

Posting order & execution: "close"
Content: A+

"Poster of the Year 2007*"


* <<< asterisk