Return of O&A mentioned in howard's article

[madmick]

So which one are you going to short?

[The Man]

They both suck. SIRI is probably the most overvalued. But like Tivo, people are so hellbent on investing on any new technology that they think is going to revolutionize the world that they're working on the greater fool theory.

In reality, the only reason you should pay anything for any stock is based on the future value of the dividends that they'll pay. You can't just assume that somone will be willing to pay more for the same stock when there is no hope of dividends.

Well, neither of these companies has more than $150 million in revenues, but they are both worth billions.

Each of them is losing like $5 a share so there is no hope of a dividend for years and years.

And unlike the Internet stocks like Ebay and Yahoo, it's not like the companies are revolutionizing anything.

With mp3 players growing in capacity and functionality, what chance is there that SIRI or XM will ever grow their revenues 10x beyond the early adopters who want it now?

What's going to get the fence sitters to adopt this technology? Opie and Anthony?

Neither of these companies will ever get to $1 billion in sales.

But everyone is playing the momentum.

[EffinC]

Hey jackass, where did I say anything about how much money they have? I was talking about overall worth and value. Which, believe it or not, is more important than how much money they have in the sock drawer.

Of course, you'll never see past your self invented theory on why you're an expert on any topic discussed on this forum.

Both companies are playing with the house's money right now. The credit taken out to lease (or even moreso to completly operate) satellite space is astronomical (yuk yuk). Paying off Delphi for their manufacturing costs, and a loss of paid advertising revenue (XM) will only further drive them away from profit. The fact is, neither one of these companies has a pot to piss in currently and need something that will draw a very large number of subscribers. The FCC crackdowns recently are the only prayer they have to ever get in the black.

Marketing a product with no significant draw is pointless, yet XM spends millions every day to do it. And guess what? THEY CAN AFFORD TO! Having a large overall worth allows them to keep borrowing and borrowing and borrowing from wherever they can. They'll be in the hole forever, until one of the companies can outpace their rival with superior CONTENT. The same songs and news channels arent diverse content.

Whoever signs O&A will get an influx of subscribers, but their deal will pale in comparison to the 800lb Gorilla who WILL be on satellite radio. Stern will do one of two things: (1) Retire and sell his best-of rights to one of the satellite companies, or (2) Bring his show to Satellite. The influx of all the Stern tools will be gargantuan as people realize "holy shit, there really is nothing on the radio!"

So your lesson for the day is: If you have a big wad of cash in your pocket, and you go to the bank and say "Hey! this is all I own, but it's not enough so let me borrow $1,000 more." You'll be laughed out of town. Go into the same bank with a dollar, but proof that you own a company that has BILLIONS of dollars worth of assets and investor value.......not to mention potential future earnings, and they'll load your U-Haul up for you. More worth = more cash.

[EffinC]

Neither of these companies will ever get to $1 billion in sales.

That's probably exactly what the TV Antenna Manufacturing companies used to say about Cable companies. Now Time Warner and Comcast own the world.

[The Man]

Give me more money so I can burn $3 for every $1 I bring in.

Seriously. I'll pay it back.

You should run a bank.

[The Man]

Originally posted by EffinC

Neither of these companies will ever get to $1 billion in sales.

That's probably exactly what the TV Antenna Manufacturing companies used to say about Cable companies. Now Time Warner and Comcast own the world.

No, I doubt they were.

Because the cable spectrum allowed broadcasters to send more programming, and of better quality. Offering consumers a tangible benefit. Existing content + more content + significantly better reception and it was the only way you could get those benefits.

satellite radio. Doesn't offer existing content, offers completely different content, and the "advertising free", customized playlist can be easily duplicated with a $100 mp3 player instead of paying $15 a month and spending a few hundred on a receiver.

It does need a killer application just like any new product, and do you really think that people are going to spend that much for a 50-year old has-been and two mediocre DJs. Especially that the whole thing that made them funny was the censorship battles and decency lines that they would dance around? On satellite there is nothing. It's just going to be boring.

Like any new technology, there's always going to be a niche that will pay for it, it's just not going to be a big one.

[diceisgod]

BETA RADIO!

[Keyser Soze]

buy ONEV.OB, voice technolgy is going to change the world!

[Topper Harley]

Originally posted by The Man
Especially that the whole thing that made them funny was the censorship battles and decency lines that they would dance around? On satellite there is nothing. It's just going to be boring.

exactly. I think some of the funniest bits that O&A did were when they were dancing on that line. For example, the Madonna abortion bit.

I heard howard say the other day that his show on radio was funny, but his show on XM would be 10 times funnier. He somehow seems to think that being able to say "cunt" will make it funny. It will no longer be outrageous and no longer be funny at all.

[madmick]

Originally posted by Keyser Soze
buy ONEV.OB, voice technolgy is going to change the world!

One Voice Technologies Inc (ONEV.OB)

Didn't you learn anything from Boiler Room?