Iraq

[Is Don on the phone?]

My only problem with the whole thing is the "regime change" rally point. First of all, who will be able to form a unity government between the Kurds, Shi'ites and Suunis? If the Kurds decide they want the north to be an autonomous region, the Turks will be pissed. And when the Ba'ath party falls, what fills the immediate power vaccum? How long will we be involved in country building before the Amercian public becomes bored with it?

Another problem is effecting the change. Saadam is a hard target; highly mobile, well protected, and with many safe houses (palaces actually). And my prediction is he barricades himself in Bagdhad: that means urban combat. This can be bloody, and does not require very highly skilled troops to inflict high casualties - look at how many Soviet troops were killed taking Berlin from a defending force made up mostly of old men and young boys with WWI vintage rifles.

Don't get me wrong, I think we have waited too long to oust that bastard. But I wonder if we really have the logistical ability and support to effect a massive invasion while still nation building in Afghanistan and chasing down Al Quaeda. I hope we are not spreading ourselves too thin.