Griffey, Jr a Hall of Famer?

[GonzoStyle]

Santa doesn't go down chimneys, thats just a cover. You can't fool me, Nazi Claus!!!!!!

There must be some deep seeded hatred for your parents lingering for that one isn't there?

Not at all, and it's parent, no "s"

[Arpikarhu]

griffey is not a hall of famer. he was dominant during his healthy days but he just didnt accumulate the numbers you need for the hall of fame. if he gets in then dale murphy and players like him should get in.

[x-file]

Ken Griffey had huge numbers in the early 90's. He hit 35 or more HR's a year. Towards the middle he had a lull in games played due to injuries. But he came back and was fine. His first year traded to the Reds in 98 he put up monster numbers again. But that was it, he's done horribly since.

To say a guy IS a hall a famer is because throughout his career on a regular basis, year in and year out the player put up big numbers every season.

To say a guy PUTS UP hall of fame numbers, which I would classify Jr in, says that the guy had a good couple years, but kinda faded out. It could be due to injury or just ageing. If Griffey would of stayed healthy then he would have been a lock for the hall. But where it stands now, no.

If griffey would get elected to the hall, then people like Don Mattingly should be elected.

[Sir O]

Griffey is absolutely a HOFer. I can't see anyone actually breaking down the numbers and making a case that he isn't. If he had retired after the 2000 season, this wouldn't even be a question - we'd simply be counting down the days until his induction. But I guess after seeing 2 1/2 years of mediocre, injury riddled Griffey, people forget just how incredibly great he was during the entire decade of the 90's.

Check out Ralph Kiner's stats. He only played for 10 years, but during that time, he was one of the most dominant hitters the game had ever seen. I can't imagine too many people questioning Kiner's place in the Hall. And he wasn't as good as Griffey.

Kiner career OPS+ 149
Griffey career OPS+ 144 (through 2002)

Slight edge to Kiner there, but then we have

Kiner career GG 0
Griffey career GG 10

Huge edge to Griffey.

Also noteworthy are these numbers from baseballreference.com:

Black Ink: Batting - 26 (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 153 (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 49.3 (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 192.0 (Likely HOFer > 100)

Also, coming into the 2003 season, he had 318 career Win Shares. Bill James defines 300 as the HOF threshold for position players (not including catchers). He's also got Griffey rated as the #8 CF of all time, for whatever it's worth.

[Keyser Soze]

Sir O makes an excellent case. Where did you look up Win Shares?

[Galt]

Once again, just like Pujols I start a thread that ESPN picks up as a story a week later. Way to keep on top of things, guys.

[Sir O]

Where did you look up Win Shares?

The book "Win Shares", plus a spreadsheet I have with the 2002 season totals.

[Keyser Soze]

Is there a listing of Win Shares online?

[The Sleeper]

what is a win share?

[Sir O]

Not that I know of, though I'd imagine there'd have to be somewhere. I think STATS.com has a database that includes Win Shares, but it's a pay service. I'll look around a bit, see what I can find...

EDIT for sleeper:

What the heck is a win share?

For those of you unfamiliar with James' innovative system, a win share is a measure of a player's contribution towards his team's victories. James defined a win share as one-third of a victory, so a team that wins 100 games, for example, will have 300 win shares, no more, no less.

Win shares are parceled out according to a player's contributions measured by dozens of interlocking formulas. To figure win shares for a player, you must:

*Determine the ratio of win shares credited to the offense and defense, which is based on park-adjusted runs scored and allowed;
*Determine the ratio of win shares credited within the defense to pitching and fielding;
*Determine the player's runs created, which is a sum of his offensive contributions;
*Determine the runs created by each player on the same team;
*Determine the outs used by each player;
*Determine claim points used to divide up offensive win shares;
*Determine individual batting win shares for each player on the team;

For pitchers, you then:

*Determine runs saved and the value of wins, losses and saves for each pitcher on the team;
*Determine his claim points used to divide pitching win shares;
*Determine individual pitching win shares for each player on the team;

For position players, you then:

*Determine claim percentages for each team position based on a 100-point scale;
*Determine the points claimed by each position;
*Determine fielding win shares for each team position;
*Determine claim points used to divide fielding win shares for individual players at each position;

For all, you then:

*Add batting, fielding and pitching win shares for each player;
*Round to the nearest integer based on a method that will result in reaching the predetermined total of win shares per team. This is different than the traditional method, which is based on rounding all decimals at 5 or above up and those below down.

Is that enough for you? Fine, now do it for 29 other teams, and you're set. There are numerous calculations each step of the way involving dozens of pieces of data, some more obscure than others. For a more detailed explanation, you can read three archived articles in Leading Off, dated April 30 and May 14, 2002, and Jan. 13, 2003. Or you can (and probably should) go straight to the source -- Win Shares, by James and Henzler -- which in addition to listing win shares, also offers all the formulas needed and explanations and rationale for each.

Zero is the base. A player with zero win shares is said to have not contributed anything to his team's success. Ten win shares represents the contributions of a decent regular player, starting pitcher or closer. Twenty win shares is the measure of an all-star player and Cy Young candidate pitcher (these days) and is considered a very good year. Thirty win shares is an MVP-type year, considered a great year, reached by a handful of players each year. Forty win shares is thought to represent a historic season. Fifty win shares? Well, that's entirely the domain of 19th Century pitchers, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Walter Johnson, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams and Barry Bonds.

The most fascinating aspect of figuring win shares is how logical the system is despite its complexity. While it takes dozens of formulas to reach a final result, much are based on comparing a team's performance to expectations based on league averages. It's a simple concept. For example, one of the categories used to figure a third baseman's fielding claim points are expected assists. This is figured by taking the number of assists made by all third basemen in a league, dividing by total assists, multiplied by team assists and then adjusting based on platoon percentage for each team.

Stated another way, we figure out the percentage of assists made by third basemen, and ask, OK, based on X number of assists by this team, we would expect the team's third basemen to have Y total assists.

Let's use the Cincinnati Reds to illustrate this. In 2002, N.L. third basemen had 5,091 assists. There were 26,931 assists made by every N.L. fielder, so third basemen made 18.9 percent of all assists. The Reds as a whole had 1,773 assists and had way fewer balls in play against left-handed pitchers (which would mean more right-handed batters and therefore more opportunities for players on the left side of the infield), so Reds third basemen would be expected to have 317 assists (actually 317.42). They had 361, 43.58 more than expected, and get credit for that.

While this one little example illustrates the need for spreadsheets to figure win shares, it also should show how delicate the system is. If one calculation, or even one piece of data, no matter how seemingly insignificant, is off, it can throw off your results. And even if your calculations are correct, your results could differ if you use different data. For example, MLB.com lists Bobby Higginson as having 175 at bats and five homers with runners on base, data needed to calculate runs created. ESPN.com lists him with 174 at bats and four homers. The difference throws off the final win shares results for the Tigers.

Edited By Sir O on 1059067077

[The Sleeper]

i've never been more confused in my life

[Galt]

<!-- w --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.doyouhavewinsharesornot.com">http://www.doyouhavewinsharesornot.com</a><!-- w -->

[Keyser Soze]

in a nutshell, its a stat that determines how much of a part a player contributes in the games his team wins.

its an indication of how valuable a player is to his team.

[The Sleeper]

i got that part, the formula made my head explode though

[Goatweed]

Griffey Triggers Incentive Clause By Playing Entire Game


CINCINNATTI, OH--The Reds’ Ken Griffey Jr is $750,000 richer today, thanks to an incentive clause that paid the slugger to play an entire nine-inning game. It was a close call, as Griffey had to run down a fly ball in the eighth, but he came through without a scratch and picked up his check after the game.
“This is a big step for me,” Griffey said, nursing his sore hamstring with a heating pad. “Just to be able to go out there and contribute for 9 full innings really gratifying. That’s why they put this incentive clause in my contract. They didn’t think I could do it, but I did. They aint seen nothing yet. Now I’m going to trigger my next incentive clause, by making a diving catch without having to be carried off on a stretcher.”

citing my source ----> <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://thebrushback.com/">http://thebrushback.com/</a><!-- m -->

[The Jays]

you mean you get incentives for actually showing up to baseball? pshaw

[Keyser Soze]

ahem, its on brushback.

[Goatweed]

I cited my source!!

[Keyser Soze]

i know, i wasnt talking to you cornel mc conspiracytheory