Another Depression?

[jaydethespaz]

I was listening to the news and heard things about the Great Depression repeating its self.

Thoughts?

[Mad Dog]

I really doubt that it would actually get as bad as the Great Depression. We need to add five years of drought and crop failure and crank up Unemployment to about 20% for that.

[potthole]

Not gonna happen.

[providencecrow]

Even if it does, my job is secure, the business i'm in is booming while everything else is failing...good luck in the unemployment line suckerssssssssssssssss hahaha.

But seriously though, i don't think it will get nearly as bad as the great depression was. It may get worse, but we still have a long way to go to get to that level.

[speedbump]

Wall Street would actually be shut down before another stock market crash.

Funny how we can learn from our mistakes in some areas, but not others.

[hotzester]

The only way we'll get even close to THAT bad is if we panic, and interfere with the free market. Markets correct themselves in the long term.

[airhornahole]

I just got this. It would be nice, wouldn't it?

I'm against the $85,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.
Instead, I'm in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a We Deserve It Dividend.
To make the math simple, let's assume there are 200,000,000 bonafide U.S. Citizens 18+.
Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..
So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billion that equals $425,000.00.
My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a We Deserve It Dividend.
Of course, it would NOT be tax free.
So let's assume a tax rate of 30%.
Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes.
That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.
But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket.
A husband and wife has $595,000.00.
What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?
Pay off your mortgage - housing crisis solved.
Repay college loans - what a great boost to new grads
Put away money for college - it'll be there
Save in a bank - create money to loan to entrepreneurs.
Buy a new car - create jobs
Invest in the market - capital drives growth
Pay for your parent's medical insurance - health care improves
Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean - or else

Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.
If we're going to re-distribute wealth let's really do it...instead of trickling out a puny $1000.00 ( "vote buy" ) economic incentive that is being proposed
by one of our candidates for President.
If we're going to do an $85 billion bailout, let's bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!
As for AIG - liquidate it.
Sell off its parts.
Let American General go back to being American General.
Sell off the real estate.
Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.
Here's my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn't.
Sure it's a crazy idea that can "never work."
But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!
How do you spell Economic Boom?
I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion
We Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC
And remember, The Birk plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $25.5 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam. Ahhh...I feel so much better getting that off my chest.

[agentsmith]

Did you listen to the show yesterday? The guys went over this, and the math doesn't work. It's off by a power of ten or two.

[Queenie]

Yeah, we'd get a whopping $425, which I guess is better than a poke in the eye. It got a lot of stupids excited though . . . for nothing.

The same email as airhorn posted is circulating around my office as well. I had to let them know not to start partying too quickly. I got 4 "well shit" comments back.

*shrug*

[landmammaldolphin]

While I think it's a great concept, it isn't plausible. If everyone got the alluded to $425,000, the price of goods and service would skyrocket and inflation would be out of control, just ask the Russians after the collapse of communism.

As for the original question, I think it's going to get worse still before it gets better, but I don't see a depression coming from it, IMO.

At first they wanted to blame all of the "sub-prime" loans but it goes much deeper than that. It was ARM's and Interest Only loans that people were sold because they could "afford the payment" not realizing that it would adjust or realizing that it would and taking the risk anyway. Well, when you are at the bottom of a market and selling those style of loans, the only way the rate can go is up which spells doom for your future. I was actually in the mortgage industry 5 years ago and could see this coming. I never sold an ARM, IO, or anything other than a fixed 30 or 15 year. Of course we were incentivized to sell the ARM's and IO's and I refused hence I'm not in the industry anymore. I knew that if the folks who were taking out those loans would run into credit problems in the future, they wouldn't be able to refi when their payments/rates adjusted and they would be SOL. The industry is corrupt and this bailout, while necessary, shouldn't allow any of the CEO's any luxuries. They should have to pay back the loans out of their own pockets or be drawn and quartered in the middle of Time Square.

The other thing that erks me are companies like Arbor Mortgage, Quicken Loans and Rock Financial. They are simply middle men and don't service their own loans so they are getting off scott free even though they are some of the biggest offenders of selling these crappy loans. Every time one of their commercials comes on I have to change the channel because I can feel my blood pressure start to boil!

[hotzester]

Personally, I'm a fan of the following solution:

- Tell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to suck it. It was THEIR bad practices that led to their demise. Welcome to the risk of business ownership.

- Tell the people who were lucky enough to have had their loans get gobbled up by F&F "Congratulations - you're done with your mortgage." All of these people have their loans dissolved, which means all of the money they were paying each month on their bank note is now going into their pockets. Some of it (if not most) is then spit out into the economy.

Banks do better business, taxes don't go up, the housing "crisis" (which it isn't - my house is secure, because I didn't buy more house than I could afford) is over, and the markets balance.

[airhornahole]

Did you listen to the show yesterday? The guys went over this, and the math doesn't work. It's off by a power of ten or two.

I only get to listen from 6:30 to 7:15. It sucks.

[fetusfacedwindbag]

How many poeple that have responded to this are up to date and well versed in the macro view of the US financial system, and how many of you are judging your opinions on hearsay, Fox news, CNN and the WSJ?

I don't claim to be on any level, but judging by most responses to this question, I can tell that most of you are not either.

[Allyson]

I'm with providencecrow... my company is not going out of business anytime soon. We'll just print more money.

[providencecrow]

I'm with providencecrow... my company is not going out of business anytime soon. We'll just print more money.

You left out the crucial point though. Sure we will print m ore money to boost inflation, but nobodys wages will go up. That will be friggin sweet.

[jaydethespaz]

How many poeple that have responded to this are up to date and well versed in the macro view of the US financial system, and how many of you are judging your opinions on hearsay, Fox news, CNN and the WSJ?

I don't claim to be on any level, but judging by most responses to this question, I can tell that most of you are not either.

I started this thread to hear peoples thoughts, not putdowns on what people think from you.

SHUT UP!

[potthole]

I don't see that fetus was putting people down. He just said that in his opinion, many people don't fully understand the situation, and that he gathers that feeling because of many of the responses found within this thread.

[Mad Dog]

Did any body hear Spuds rant on GRD last Friday? It kind of went something like this: Way back in the 1980's in an effort to stick up for and help the poor and middle class, liberal democrats like Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and Ed Kennedy, sponsored and passed legislation liberalizing lending practices and mandating that Banks lend loans and mortgages to to "less than qualified" loan applicants. At first this was just fine as the number of people truly qualified to receive a loan far exceeded the number of people who didn't and the banks still more than profited.

But as the years went by, because of the legislation and easy money, the number of unqualified "dead beats" grew to the point where banks were no longer very profitable and in fact failed. Spud went further asking why do we want to pour more legislation written by the same liberal bunch of congressmen that created this boondoggle in the first place? Good question. Every body wants to blame rich wall-street fat-cats, which I agree share some blame, but don't look any further than left wing congressmen to stack most of the blame on.

[krystal]

Another Great Depression could happen. Key word here is "could". It depends. If the government isn't able to raise enough capital to bail out these companies, it would just print more money. When more money is added to the system without any real backing, after all it is just paper, it causes the value of the dollar to go down (think of the peso). If the value of the dollar drops, the price of goods and services goes up. So we spend more on everything. Because inflation sucks like that. So we spend more money. Which is fine, except WE WON'T BE MAKING ANY MORE MONEY. So we spend money we're not making which disallows us to buy luxury items, causing most small businesses to go out of business, store profits to drop, mass layofs because businesses aren't making enough money to make more consumer products, and so on, so forth. Its cyclical. It's also when I'm picking up and moving to Canada because I heart money.

[agentsmith]

So you heart money so much you go to a nation with some of the highest taxes in the world? Personaly, I will stay in America through thick and thin. An economic depression is hard, but their are opportunities if you look for them. So I will be keeping my eyes open and jumping on one that comes my way.

[sunshyne]

I'm going to move to mexico and become a war lord

[plungerhand]

I'm going to move to mexico and become a war lord

Yeah, I bet you'll intimidate the hell out of the locals... :




Might want to come up with a better name...

[sunshyne]

I said it because of the irony.

[plungerhand]

I said it because of the irony.

Sorry, didn't catch the inflection. ((hugs))

[sunshyne]

Hee hee, I really would be a good covert war lord, like Lucy Lu's caracter in the Kill Bill series, all sweet and cute looking but one hell of a samari sword slice. But honestly, I don't think anyone whose screen name is "sunshyne" would ever make an intimidating figure.

[Mad Dog]

I' depressed.....

[fetusfacedwindbag]

The options in the poll are not adequate enough to vote.

This is a totally different economy than that which was around when the Depression happened. Judging by certain numbers, our economy is twenty times worse than those that were around during the depression. We certainly aren't going to see the kind of growth that we've seen in the recent (relatively speaking) years, but it's how we handle the situation that will determine whether we go through another depression. We know how to handle the things that we've witnessed in the past about economic trends, but there will be new things that happen.

Maybe we'll have a Depression Part Deux, but I don't forsee anyone waiting in lines for bread and jobs in the near future.

[spoonman]

Unemployment rate would truly have to skyrocket for another depression to occur, along with several other things.

Unemployment in the Great Depression hovered around 20%. We are nowhere near those numbers at this time.

[-Jiggy-]

Interesting article I found talking about this.
http://www.iww.org/en/node/4441

[sunshyne]

I think a lot depends on what Obama does as president and if people panic over the economy.

[cuppie]

My business is booming too. I work in heating and cooling for a company that has an emphasis on helping businesses save on energy bills. Even though I don't believe in Global Warming, the scare has made the business skyrocket.

[lokizilla]

I was reading a story on a woman today. She is on Disability, gets $868 a month. The banks approved her for a loan for a payment of $603 a month. Now she wants help to keep her house. I'm sorry but, my house is almost a grand a month, if I only brought home $1200, there is no way I would have signed for a loan that cost me over 70% of my bring home money. And now she is saying the government needs to bail her out. I think not. This is banks lending wrong.

[-Jiggy-]

I was reading a story on a woman today. She is on Disability, gets $868 a month. The banks approved her for a loan for a payment of $603 a month. Now she wants help to keep her house. I'm sorry but, my house is almost a grand a month, if I only brought home $1200, there is no way I would have signed for a loan that cost me over 70% of my bring home money. And now she is saying the government needs to bail her out. I think not. This is banks lending wrong.

I wonder when people got the mindset that the world owes them something. I love living in today's world for technology, etc. I wish, however, we could go back to a time when the masses actually took responsibility for their own problems without bringing gov't into the mix. People wake up...If you ask the gov't for help for everything you give them more control. More control means less control for us. Less control for us means no more democracy and everything our fathers and grandfathers fought for was meaningless.

[lokizilla]

I was reading a story on a woman today. She is on Disability, gets $868 a month. The banks approved her for a loan for a payment of $603 a month. Now she wants help to keep her house. I'm sorry but, my house is almost a grand a month, if I only brought home $1200, there is no way I would have signed for a loan that cost me over 70% of my bring home money. And now she is saying the government needs to bail her out. I think not. This is banks lending wrong.

I wonder when people got the mindset that the world owes them something. I love living in today's world for technology, etc. I wish, however, we could go back to a time when the masses actually took responsibility for their own problems without bringing gov't into the mix. People wake up...If you ask the gov't for help for everything you give them more control. More control means less control for us. Less control for us means no more democracy and everything our fathers and grandfathers fought for was meaningless.

You are so right. What happened to responsibility for what you do? I hear every day, "Nothing is wrong with my phone, it looks just like when I got it." Then I ask to talk to the store rep, and the store rep says, "The phone is in two pieces, has dog teeth marks puncturing it, and it smells like urine." Take responsibility for being irresponsible and leaving your phone where your dog could get it. Or worse people calling in wanting to put insurance on a phone that is lost, when they don't have insurance, and yell at me for not covering their phone. Got to say, I do agree with my company on not backing down on the terms and conditions on the insurance or they would go bankrupt.

[krystal]

Economics go in cycles, upswings and downturns.

That said, I still believe, however, that no one should have been bailed out and all that nonexistant money that went to the banks should have been used for public works projects. So what if that idea is border-line socialism. People can't buy stuff and pay taxes when they aren't making any money. So I say we start building schools and actually staffing them and paving roads (but only between the hours of 10:00 p.m. and 4:00 a.m.), but, alas, no one listens to me.

[sunshyne]

Gov. David Paterson unveils dire New York State budget that includes new taxes, layoffs and cuts

By KENNETH LOVETT and GLENN BLAIN
DAILY NEWS ALBANY BUREAU
Updated Tuesday, December 16th 2008, 10:21 PM
Related News

Articles


MTA panel OKs doomsday rate hikes
Gov set to aim budget ax at city schools
Budget cuts could halt push to reduce class size


ALBANY - Gov. Paterson's proposed $121 billion budget hits New Yorkers in their iPods - and nickels-and-dimes them in lots of other places, too.
Trying to close a $15.4 billion budget gap, Paterson called for 88 new fees and a host of other taxes, including an "iPod tax" that taxes the sale of downloaded music and other "digitally delivered entertainment services."

"We're going to have to take some extreme measures," Paterson said Tuesday after unveiling the slash-and-burn budget.
The proposal, which needs legislative approval, did not include broad-based income tax increases, but relied on smaller ones to raise $4.1 billion from cash-strapped New Yorkers.

Movie tickets, taxi rides, soda, beer, wine, cigars and massages would be taxed under Paterson's proposal. It also extends sales taxes to cable and satellite TV services and removes the tax exemption for clothes costing less than $110.

"The governor is nickel-and-diming working class families," said Ron Deutsch, executive director of New Yorkers for Fiscal Fairness, an advocacy group.

State Conservative Party Chairman Michael Long warned that reinstating the sales tax on clothing and shoes will drive people to New Jersey, where they will also gas up their cars and pick up their wine, spirits and soda because the prices are less due to lower taxes. "You're sending notice to the people of New York that we really don't want you here," Long said. "The governor proposed flat spending, but why not actually cut the budget before raising taxes and fees?"

Paterson's 2009-10 budget proposal represents only a 1% increase in total spending from this year's budget - the smallest increase in a dozen years. It also calls for:

A 3.3%, or $698 million, reduction in school aid.

$3.5 billion in health care savings, including reductions in payments to hospitals and nursing homes.

Video slot machines at Belmont Park, more multistate lottery games and expanded hours for the state's Quick Draw lottery game.

Layoffs for 521 state workers and the elimination of seven state agencies.

"This is where we are," Paterson told reporters. "Maybe we should have thought about this when we were depending on what we thought was inexhaustive collections of taxes from Wall Street - and now those taxes have fallen off a cliff."

Paterson aides say the budget represents a net gain for New York City, but Mayor Bloomberg wasn't buying it. He said it could cost the city more than $1 billion, including a $600 million reduction in school aid.

"I don't know that 100% of it is going to go the classroom, but a large percentage of any reduction we get from the state will go to the classroom," Bloomberg said. "That will mean larger class sizes and fewer services."

Education and health care advocates also blasted Paterson's budget and urged state lawmakers to increase income taxes on wealthy New Yorkers to offset the cuts.
"We will be fighting this tooth and nail. We think it is irresponsible to make this level of cuts and not ask the wealthiest New Yorkers to help ease the pain," said Billy Easton, executive director of the Alliance for Quality Education.
Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, who supports a so-called millionaire tax, has said he'd "rather have a broad-based tax than nickel-and-dime" people.

Still, Silver (D-Manhattan) Tuesday indicated major cuts are in store. "Everything the governor has proposed is on the table," he said.

Republican lawmakers expressed concern with the tax and fee increases.
"Instead of raising taxes, we need to be reducing them," said Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco (R-Schenectady).
Paterson did not rule out income tax increases but said spending reductions are the priority. He also defended the fee and sales tax increases, saying they would be less harmful to the state's economy.
"If you start taxing at times when [revenues are] receding, you'll drive job creators out of the state," Paterson said.
__________________

Hmm... taxing my Ipod? glad I don't live in NY, though how long till tax raises, program cuts, etc. start here?

[krystal]

My dad said it best when he said, and I quote:

"If you have $100.00 and buy stocks with it, the stocks drop, and you lose $50.00, is the government going to give you that $50.00 back? No. So why should anyone get a bailout?"

For once in my life, I agreed with my father about something.

[lokizilla]

My dad said it best when he said, and I quote:

"If you have $100.00 and buy stocks with it, the stocks drop, and you lose $50.00, is the government going to give you that $50.00 back? No. So why should anyone get a bailout?"

For once in my life, I agreed with my father about something.

You make a valid point.

[sunshyne]

if the bailouts piss you off, watch this video. Makes you want to punch them in the mouth.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/p...0&src=news